Aussie dollar outperforms overnight
Another day, another bond market sell-off with fresh highs in global rates, although the net change in the US 10-year rate has been small, after some reversal, says BNZ Markets this morning. Higher risk appetite sees a recovery in US equities and a broadly weaker USD, notes senior markets strategist Jason Wong. The AUD has been the top performer, while the NZD has recovered to 0.5960. Higher UK rates led a global bond market sell-off, with the 10-year Gilt up as much as 20bps to 4.56% before...
Kiwi dollar weaker against majors
30.9.23 It’s a case of more of the same overnight, with weaker equity markets in the face of fresh cycle highs for bond yields with steeper curves, higher oil prices and a stronger USD, says BNZ Markets on Thursday morning. “Risk sentiment remains downbeat overnight with the VIX index up through 19 and the S&P500 currently down 0.7%, following the chunky 1½% decline yesterday and extending its decline for September towards 6%,”m notes Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. The Euro Stoxx...
Modest gain for the Kiwi
The NZ dollar saw a modest gain on Friday night, closing the week at 0.5960, to be the best of the majors for the week, up 1%, notes BNZ Markets this morning. US Treasuries ended the week with a relief rally, the 10-year rate closing Friday down 6bps after trading at its highest level since 2007. The S&P500 fell for a fourth consecutive day. Currency moves were modest, with a weak yen after the BoJ maintained a dovish stance. “On Friday, the BoJ remained as dovish as ever, maintaining its...
Commodity currencies out-perform
Some nerves are evident ahead of the Fed’s meeting in just under 24 hours, sending US Treasury rates higher, not helped by stronger than expected Canadian inflation data and oil prices rising to a fresh 10-month high, notes BNZ Markets this morning Commodity currencies have modestly outperformed, seeing the NZD consolidate further above the 0.59 mark, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist at BNZ Markets, The S&P500 is currently down 0.2%. Canadian CPI data for August, showed the...
Quiet start to trading week
Ahead of a busy week, market movements have been modest, noyes BNZ M<arkets this morning. “The USD is slightly weaker, with a small fall overall, and the NZD has consolidated just over 0.59,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “US Treasury yields are well contained with a flattening bias and US equities show a small lift. Markets have opened the week with small changes ahead of policy meetings this week by the Fed, BoE and BoJ. There is a strong consensus that the Fed won’t hike...
Anzac currencies underperform
US equities fell on Friday led by technology stocks following indications of weak demand from Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s top chipmaker, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The Nasdaq fell 1.6% while the S&P pulled back 1.2% to end little changed over the week. “The beginning of a strike among US autoworkers also dampened investor sentiment,” says Stuart Ritson, senior interest rate strategist. Global bond yields increased, and the US Dollar made marginal gains. Brent crude remained near recent...
US dollar has weaker session
Ahead of a busy week, the USD weakened, about time following eight consecutive weekly increases in the DXY index, notes BNZ Markets. “A stronger yuan, given the heavy hand of the PBoC and some supportive credit data, has spilled over into a stronger NZD, AUD, with the stronger yen also playing a role,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “US Treasuries show small net movements and a slightly steeper curve while equity markets are on a stronger footing.” “Mondays are normally pretty...
Kiwi dollar drifts directionless
In the absence of major economic releases, global markets were generally subdued into the weekly close, notes BNZ Markets The S&P closed marginally higher while Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.2% boosted by energy stocks as oil prices continued to appreciate, says Stuart Ritson, senior interest rate strategist. US treasury yields moved higher supporting the US Dollar which rose for the eighth straight week, its longest run since 2005. The strong US Dollar continues to attract the attention...
NZ Market Report 7.9.23
The quiet phase continued on NZX today with only a handful of stocks making good gains and the remainder idling around +/- 5c. The NZX50 meandered to a light loss of 0.82 points at 11,426.84. Attention was taken up Wall Street which was skitterish after reports in US and UK media that China had imposed a ban on Apple iphones – which turned out to be an instruction to government officials not to use the US technology while at work. Quite different to a population-wide ban. But it...
NZ-US tests year low
The ISM US services sector survey was stronger than expected which underpinned expectations the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, says BNZ Markets this morning Treasury yields increased supporting the US Dollar while equities retreated with the S&P falling 0.8%. Euro Stoxx ended the day 0.7% lower marking its sixth successive day of declines and is testing the base of the trading range near 4200. The August ISM services index increased to 54.5 from 52.7, easily...
NZ Market Report 6.9.23
The NZ market had a weaker day with minimal newsflow. The NZX50 closed off 9.59 at 11,427.66. Retailers had a brighter session with Hallenstein Glasson jumping 16c to $6.10 and Briscoe up 8c at $4.82. Infratil jumped 14c to $10.30. 14c to $10.30 and Mainfreight rose 12c to $66.00. Smartpay had a strong session, rising 7c to $1.62, a gain of 4.5%. Vulcan Steel added 7c to $8.77. F&P Healthcare fell 3c to $22.12. Fletcher was down 9c to $4.72. South Port surrendered 13c of recent...
Kiwi dollar now range-trading
1.9.23 In-line core inflation in the Euro area and US PCE deflator data confirming the current disinflationary pulse have helped support global bonds markets, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Declines in European yields have led the way, and this sees EUR and GBP underperform, says senior market strategist Jason Wong. “The NZD has been range-trading, with no spillover from a stronger yuan after further support measures to revive China’s property market. Equity markets show modest movements.”...
Softer US economic data
US equities gained for the fourth consecutive day and treasury yields declined as soft GDP and labour market data added to signs the US economy is slowing decreasing the likelihood of further tightening by the US Federal Reserve, notes BNZ Markets. The S&P made modest gains and is back above 4500. The US Dollar is weaker against European currencies, said Stuart Ritson. Inflation slowed less than expected in Germany and rose to a 3-month high in Spain ahead of the Eurozone wide CPI release...
US dollar drops on weaker data
The market has cheered two much weaker than expected US economic releases, driving risk appetite higher. US equities show strong gains, US Treasury yields have fallen, led by the short end, and the USD fell notably after some prior strength, notes BNZ Markets this morning. According to the US JOLTS report, job openings plunged to a more than two-year low and were over 620k weaker than expected at 8.8m, the miss exacerbated by downward revisions to prior data, says Jason W9ng, senior markets...
Whippy weekend for markets
Global markets endured a choppy session on Friday as US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. “ He outlined that inflation is too high which will require rates remaining at the current level, or higher, to bring inflation down to its 2% target,” notes Stuart Ritson at BNZ Markets this morning. . The S&P gained 0.7% on the day resulting in the first higher weekly close in a month. Despite a short burst of volatility, the US Dollar was little changed...
US dollar stronger on jobs data
Against a backdrop of jobless claims data showing ongoing US labour market resilience, US Treasuries yields are slightly higher, the USD is broadly stronger and US equities are weaker, says BNZ Markets. The NZD is trading back down around 0.5925. Newsflow has been light as the market keenly anticipates what Fed Chair Powell will say at his Jackson Hole speech tonight, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “He is expected to reiterate the “job not done yet” view on inflation, with further...
Kiwi twitches to US dollar tune
US and European purchasing manager surveys (PMIs) point to a greater than expected slowdown in economic activity and contributed to a sharp retracement lower in global bond yields, says BNZ Markets todsy. US equities moved higher, led by technology stocks, ahead of widely anticipated results from Nvidia, the chipmaker at the epicentre of investor excitement around artificial intelligence, says Stuart Ritson. European PMIs raised concerns about the growth outlook. German manufacturing fell for...
Currencies quiet on fragile markets
21.8.23 Risk sentiment remains fragile. The MSCI World Index declined 2.5% during last week which is the largest fall since the US banking crisis in March. Global equities have retraced 5% off the July highs, says BNZ Markets. “The S&P was flat on Friday while European and Asian equities fell amid growing concerns about the Chinese economy,” says Stuart Ritson. “The Hang Seng Index traded to fresh lows for the year below 18000 and is now down 10% in 2023, a significant underperformance...
Markets steadying with NZD flat
US equities are little changed while the US Dollar is marginally higher along with US Treasury yields., says BNZ Markets this morning Stocks fell in Asia reflecting ongoing concerns about the Chinese economy and the growing debt crisis in the property sector. The benchmark CSI 300 dropped 0.7% and the Hang Seng fell 1.4% to levels just above the lows for 2023. News that Zhongrong International Trust, one of China’s biggest shadow banks, has not made payments on several investment products...
NZ dollar slips lower
14.8.23 Global equities ended the week on a soft note. In the US, the S&P was marginally down while the Nasdaq fell 0.7% to a 1-month low, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The MSCI World Index lost ground for a second straight week and is now 4% below the highs from late July, add Stuart Ritson The Shanghai Composite fell 2% after data showed a steep drop in new bank lending with ongoing stress in the housing market and deflation threatening the economic outlook in China. Above expectations...
US inflation report is ‘benign’
11.8.23 A benign US CPI print in line with market expectations cemented in the view that the Fed is probably done hiking this cycle, says BNZ <Markets this morning “US Treasuries have been impacted more by supply than the data, with the 10-year rate up to 4.08% after tepid demand at the 30-year bond auction, “ noted Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “Net currency moves have been mainly small, but with notable under-performance by the yen and small under-performance by the NZD.” In a...
NZ Market Report 9.8.23
The winter of 2023 is starting to grind its way into a second half low level recession and a rather negative mood was evident on a very slow NZX market today. The NZX50 dropped 30.49 at 11,838.26. There was hardly a rise of any scale, the best being a 4c gain by Briscoe Group to $4.68 after a level half year performance¸ Considering the challenging tone of the consumer markets, the result was little short of outstanding in that both revenue and earnings were marginally higher. BRG is...
China data negative for markets
Risk appetite has been hit by another poor set of China trade data and a banking sector hit by a new windfall tax on bank profits proposed by Italy and ratings downgrades for US banks, says BNZ Markets this morning “Global equities are weaker and global rates curves are lower and flatter. The USD has been supported by safe-haven flows, seeing the NZD and AUD both weaker,” adds Jason Wonmg, sernior markets strategist. Seasonally, risk appetite is weaker during the months of August through to...
Wall Street breaks higher
Wall Street took off again with an abrupt end to the 4-day losing slide of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as strong earnings from blue chips buoyed investors. The Dow Jones rose 407.51 to 35,473.13. Tesla shares fell 17% on news that the CEO Zach Kirkhorn is to step down. The bright spot for the day was mega stock Berkshire Hathaway which reported quarterly operating earnings up 6.6% to just over US$10bn, lifted by a rock solid insurance segment where disaster cover was much lower. The company...
Recovery in risk appetite
8.8.23 The new week has begun with a recovery in risk appetite after last week’s hit, says BNZ Markets this morning. “US equities have recovered some lost ground and yield curves are steepening, led by increasing rates at the long end,” comments Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “Currency markets show modest moves, with the NZD hovering around the 0.61 mark. “Last week our risk appetite index fell from 69% to 57% and the new week has kicked out with a modest recovery of sorts, with...
Quarterly fall as Maersk volumes normalise
Aotea Maersk at Port of Tauranga 7.8.23 The Danish shipping and logistics group A.P. Moller – Maersk has recorded a sharp fall in both revenue and profitability in the second quarter of 2023 that underscores the return to normalised profits following the demise of the super cycle of freight rates and demand that marked 2022. Copenhagen based Maersk says the 2Q23 outcome is even ahead of expectations, “while the ongoing market normalisation continued through the quarter leading to lower volumes...
Aussie dollar drop drags on Kiwi
2.8.23 Higher US Treasury yields and a broadly stronger USD are the themes of the day, says BNZ Markets this morning “The AUD is much weaker after the RBA’s on-hold decision and the NZD is faring poorly as well,” notes Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “US Treasury rates are higher across the curve, driven by the long end. Rates began to lift from the US open and, while there was no particular trigger, the move comes a day after the Treasury department said it would increase its net...
US dollar sustains strength
21.7.23 The USD is broadly stronger, while a strong Australian employment report yesterday sees the AUD higher than this time yesterday despite overnight weakness, notes BNZ Markets. Risk sentiment is weaker after some key earnings misses and US labour market data remaining too strong for comfort. The US Treasuries curve is higher and steeper, with the 10-year rate up 10bps, and US equities are weaker. :US labour market data remain too strong for comfort, reinforcing market expectations for...
AUD drags as yen weakens
Currencies show small moves, but notably the AUD has been dragged down as the yuan has weakened again, says BNZ Markets this morning. The key market move overnight has been the US Treasuries curve steepening, with the 10-year rate up to a fresh three-month high of 3.94%. The move was ahead of FOMC meeting minutes that didn’t add much new. “The mood yesterday was soured after China’s Caixin services PMI fell by a larger than expected 3.2pts to 53.9, a larger fall than the official services PMI...
Weaker US data drives USD down
Data on Friday night showing weaker US consumer spending and inflation saw the market shade down expected US rate hikes, pushing down US Treasury rates from pre-data highs, driving the USD lower and US equities higher, notes BNZ Markets. “Against a backdrop of higher risk appetite, the NZD ended the week on a stronger note, recovering the losses seen in the previous couple of days,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “There was a plethora of data for the market to absorb on Friday....
