Aussie dollar outperforms overnight
Another day, another bond market sell-off with fresh highs in global rates, although the net change in the US 10-year rate has been small, after some reversal, says BNZ Markets this morning. Higher risk appetite sees a recovery in US equities and a broadly weaker USD, notes senior markets strategist Jason Wong. The AUD has been the top performer, while the NZD has recovered to 0.5960. Higher UK rates led a global bond market sell-off, with the 10-year Gilt up as much as 20bps to 4.56% before...
Kiwi dollar weaker against majors
30.9.23 It’s a case of more of the same overnight, with weaker equity markets in the face of fresh cycle highs for bond yields with steeper curves, higher oil prices and a stronger USD, says BNZ Markets on Thursday morning. “Risk sentiment remains downbeat overnight with the VIX index up through 19 and the S&P500 currently down 0.7%, following the chunky 1½% decline yesterday and extending its decline for September towards 6%,”m notes Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. The Euro Stoxx...
US dollar stronger
Risk sentiment is weaker in overnight trading, with a higher VIX and US equities down over 1%, says BNZ Markets this morning. The US 10-year Treasury continues to trade near its highest level since 2007. The USD is broadly stronger, although with only small moves, leaving NZD near 0.5950. “Newsflow remains light, as it will be all week, but that hasn’t stopped another chunky fall in US equities, down over 1% for the S&P500, taking the index to its lowest level since early June – equity...
Modest gain for the Kiwi
The NZ dollar saw a modest gain on Friday night, closing the week at 0.5960, to be the best of the majors for the week, up 1%, notes BNZ Markets this morning. US Treasuries ended the week with a relief rally, the 10-year rate closing Friday down 6bps after trading at its highest level since 2007. The S&P500 fell for a fourth consecutive day. Currency moves were modest, with a weak yen after the BoJ maintained a dovish stance. “On Friday, the BoJ remained as dovish as ever, maintaining its...
Central banks in the spotlight
22.9.23 Markets have been jittery following the Fed’s hawkish-hold yesterday, while in a close call the Bank of England opted to leave rates unchanged, for the first time in nearly two years, notes BNZ Markets. Steeper yield curves have been the order of the day, with long-dated global rates trading at fresh multi-year or multi-decade highs across many countries, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “Equity investors are showing some nerves, with notable falls across Europe and the US....
Strongfer US dollar
In currency markets, the US Dollar was weaker in the lead-up to the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting with the dollar index close to 0.4% lower, notes BNZ Markets. The pound underperformed within G10 as the market reduced the chance of further tightening by the Bank of England (BOE) after an inflation slowdown, says Stuart Ritson, senior interest rate strategist. The dollar then rebounded following the front-end treasury yields. The NZ dollar made solid gains and reached session highs above...
Commodity currencies out-perform
Some nerves are evident ahead of the Fed’s meeting in just under 24 hours, sending US Treasury rates higher, not helped by stronger than expected Canadian inflation data and oil prices rising to a fresh 10-month high, notes BNZ Markets this morning Commodity currencies have modestly outperformed, seeing the NZD consolidate further above the 0.59 mark, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist at BNZ Markets, The S&P500 is currently down 0.2%. Canadian CPI data for August, showed the...
Quiet start to trading week
Ahead of a busy week, market movements have been modest, noyes BNZ M<arkets this morning. “The USD is slightly weaker, with a small fall overall, and the NZD has consolidated just over 0.59,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “US Treasury yields are well contained with a flattening bias and US equities show a small lift. Markets have opened the week with small changes ahead of policy meetings this week by the Fed, BoE and BoJ. There is a strong consensus that the Fed won’t hike...
Anzac currencies underperform
US equities fell on Friday led by technology stocks following indications of weak demand from Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s top chipmaker, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The Nasdaq fell 1.6% while the S&P pulled back 1.2% to end little changed over the week. “The beginning of a strike among US autoworkers also dampened investor sentiment,” says Stuart Ritson, senior interest rate strategist. Global bond yields increased, and the US Dollar made marginal gains. Brent crude remained near recent...
NZ dollar consolidates
Market movements have been well-contained as the market awaits tonight’s key US CPI report, notes BNZ Markets this morning. “US Treasuries have traded a very tight range with little movement and the S&P500 shows a modest loss for the day,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “Of note, oil prices have risen to a fresh 10-month high, lending support to CAD. “The USD is slightly stronger and the NZD has consolidated around 0.59. There was little market reaction to the government’s...
US dollar has weaker session
Ahead of a busy week, the USD weakened, about time following eight consecutive weekly increases in the DXY index, notes BNZ Markets. “A stronger yuan, given the heavy hand of the PBoC and some supportive credit data, has spilled over into a stronger NZD, AUD, with the stronger yen also playing a role,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “US Treasuries show small net movements and a slightly steeper curve while equity markets are on a stronger footing.” “Mondays are normally pretty...
Kiwi dollar drifts directionless
In the absence of major economic releases, global markets were generally subdued into the weekly close, notes BNZ Markets The S&P closed marginally higher while Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.2% boosted by energy stocks as oil prices continued to appreciate, says Stuart Ritson, senior interest rate strategist. US treasury yields moved higher supporting the US Dollar which rose for the eighth straight week, its longest run since 2005. The strong US Dollar continues to attract the attention...
Anzac currencies holding up
Global rates are lower, with a downward surprise to US initial jobless claims proving to be only a short-term interruption to the move, notes BNZ Markets this morning Despite a fresh low for the yuan, the NZD and AUD have managed to hold their ground against the USD, unlike EUR and GBP which have fallen to fresh three-month lows, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. US initial jobless claims fell 13k to 216k last week, its lowest level since February and below expectations for a small...
NZ-US tests year low
The ISM US services sector survey was stronger than expected which underpinned expectations the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, says BNZ Markets this morning Treasury yields increased supporting the US Dollar while equities retreated with the S&P falling 0.8%. Euro Stoxx ended the day 0.7% lower marking its sixth successive day of declines and is testing the base of the trading range near 4200. The August ISM services index increased to 54.5 from 52.7, easily...
Stronger USD weighs on Kiwi
The USD found support after China’s Caixin services PMI fell yesterday, with the NZD, AUD and JPY all weakening to fresh lows for the year, notes BNZ Markets. Oil prices are up to a fresh high for the year, not helping the bond market, with US Treasury yields up 8-9bps across the curve, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist The mood in markets shifted a gear yesterday after China’s Caixin services PMI fell 2.3pts to 51.8, its lowest level this year. It was a bigger fall than showed by the...
Quiet start for markets
With the US on holiday, there has been little news and little price action in markets at the beginning of the week, noted BNZ Markets. S&P futures are currently down less than 0.1% and Treasury futures point to some small upside pressure on yields, with the implied 10-year rate up about 2bps. The net change in the Euro Stoxx 600 index was close to zero and European 10-year rates are up in the order of 3bps for the likes of the UK and Germany. All key major currencies sit within 0.3%...
US tracks towards ‘soft landing’
The US labour market report provided further evidence the economy is on track for a ‘soft landing’ with solid monthly payrolls growth in conjunction with an increased supply of workers as the participation rate picks up, notes BNZ Markets After an initial period of volatility, US treasury yields moved higher lending support to the US Dollar. Says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. The S&P closed up 0.2% as earlier gains faded but still ended the week 2.5% higher. “US non-farm...
Kiwi dollar now range-trading
1.9.23 In-line core inflation in the Euro area and US PCE deflator data confirming the current disinflationary pulse have helped support global bonds markets, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Declines in European yields have led the way, and this sees EUR and GBP underperform, says senior market strategist Jason Wong. “The NZD has been range-trading, with no spillover from a stronger yuan after further support measures to revive China’s property market. Equity markets show modest movements.”...
Softer US economic data
US equities gained for the fourth consecutive day and treasury yields declined as soft GDP and labour market data added to signs the US economy is slowing decreasing the likelihood of further tightening by the US Federal Reserve, notes BNZ Markets. The S&P made modest gains and is back above 4500. The US Dollar is weaker against European currencies, said Stuart Ritson. Inflation slowed less than expected in Germany and rose to a 3-month high in Spain ahead of the Eurozone wide CPI release...
US dollar drops on weaker data
The market has cheered two much weaker than expected US economic releases, driving risk appetite higher. US equities show strong gains, US Treasury yields have fallen, led by the short end, and the USD fell notably after some prior strength, notes BNZ Markets this morning. According to the US JOLTS report, job openings plunged to a more than two-year low and were over 620k weaker than expected at 8.8m, the miss exacerbated by downward revisions to prior data, says Jason W9ng, senior markets...
Modest moves in currency
Ahead of a busy week on the economic calendar, culminating in the US non-farm payrolls report at the end of the week, it has been a quiet start to the week, with modest changes in currencies and US Treasuries trading in a well-contained range, with a small downside bias to yields., notes BNZ Markets. Equity markets have opened the week on a positive note, following China’s measures announced on Sunday to “invigorate capital markets and boost investor confidence”, says Jason Wong, senior...
Whippy weekend for markets
Global markets endured a choppy session on Friday as US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. “ He outlined that inflation is too high which will require rates remaining at the current level, or higher, to bring inflation down to its 2% target,” notes Stuart Ritson at BNZ Markets this morning. . The S&P gained 0.7% on the day resulting in the first higher weekly close in a month. Despite a short burst of volatility, the US Dollar was little changed...
US dollar stronger on jobs data
Against a backdrop of jobless claims data showing ongoing US labour market resilience, US Treasuries yields are slightly higher, the USD is broadly stronger and US equities are weaker, says BNZ Markets. The NZD is trading back down around 0.5925. Newsflow has been light as the market keenly anticipates what Fed Chair Powell will say at his Jackson Hole speech tonight, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “He is expected to reiterate the “job not done yet” view on inflation, with further...
Kiwi twitches to US dollar tune
US and European purchasing manager surveys (PMIs) point to a greater than expected slowdown in economic activity and contributed to a sharp retracement lower in global bond yields, says BNZ Markets todsy. US equities moved higher, led by technology stocks, ahead of widely anticipated results from Nvidia, the chipmaker at the epicentre of investor excitement around artificial intelligence, says Stuart Ritson. European PMIs raised concerns about the growth outlook. German manufacturing fell for...
Kiwi dollar at fresh low
Despite little newsflow, global rates have kicked off the week grinding higher again, with fresh multi-year highs for US Treasury yields, says BNZ Markets The NZD traded at a fresh nine-month low overnight, trading down to 0.5897. Despite higher rates, US equities have recovered some lost ground. Jason Wong, senior market strategist says “There has been little news but that hasn’t stopped the US Treasuries market reaching some new milestones, with the real 10-year yield (as measured by the...
Currencies quiet on fragile markets
21.8.23 Risk sentiment remains fragile. The MSCI World Index declined 2.5% during last week which is the largest fall since the US banking crisis in March. Global equities have retraced 5% off the July highs, says BNZ Markets. “The S&P was flat on Friday while European and Asian equities fell amid growing concerns about the Chinese economy,” says Stuart Ritson. “The Hang Seng Index traded to fresh lows for the year below 18000 and is now down 10% in 2023, a significant underperformance...
Markets steadying with NZD flat
US equities are little changed while the US Dollar is marginally higher along with US Treasury yields., says BNZ Markets this morning Stocks fell in Asia reflecting ongoing concerns about the Chinese economy and the growing debt crisis in the property sector. The benchmark CSI 300 dropped 0.7% and the Hang Seng fell 1.4% to levels just above the lows for 2023. News that Zhongrong International Trust, one of China’s biggest shadow banks, has not made payments on several investment products...
Deluge of bleak economic data
16.8.2 There has been a deluge of economic data to digest. The net result has been surprisingly little net reaction in the currency and bond market, while equity markets seem to have taken more of an impact, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist at BNZ Markets this morning Risk appetite is weaker on the day with global equities mostly lower, including an 0.8% fall in the S&P500 after the Euro Stoxx 600 index closed 0.9% lower and the FTSE100 index fell 1.6%. All S&P500...
China worries weigh on NZD
15.8.23 Newsflow has been lacking ahead of a busy week, but downbeat sentiment on China continues to weigh on the NZD and AUD, both trading at fresh lows for the year alongside the weak yen, notes BNZ Markets. Equity markets have started the week on a positive note, while the US 10-year Treasury rate traded at a fresh high of the year overnight,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “On a slow news day, after back-to-back weekly falls, the S&P500 has begun the week on a positive...
NZ dollar slips lower
14.8.23 Global equities ended the week on a soft note. In the US, the S&P was marginally down while the Nasdaq fell 0.7% to a 1-month low, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The MSCI World Index lost ground for a second straight week and is now 4% below the highs from late July, add Stuart Ritson The Shanghai Composite fell 2% after data showed a steep drop in new bank lending with ongoing stress in the housing market and deflation threatening the economic outlook in China. Above expectations...
