NZ dollar easier on cautious markets
17.4.26 Markets are trading cautiously ahead of the weekend, with oil prices up nearly 5%, US Treasury yields a little higher and the USD a little stronger, reports BNZ Markets. The NZD has slipped back below 0.59. US equities continue their record-breaking run, In currency markets, the USD is broadly stronger. “While the NZD returned to 0.5920 in NZ afternoon trading, it has slipped to 0.5885,” noted Jason Wong, senior markets strategist on Friday morning. “The AUD rose to its highest level...
Oil rises and NZ dollar ebbs
27.3.26 Oil prices, the US dollar, and bond yields all rose amid market scepticism that a de-escalation in the Iran war was likely soon, reports Westpac this morning. Currencies: “The US dollar index is up 0.3% on the day. EUR fell from 1.1570 to 1.1523. USD/JPY rose from 159.40 to 159.79. AUD fell from 0.6957 to 0.6885 – lowest since late January,” says Imre Speizer, New Zealand market strategist. “NZD fell from 0.5808 to 0.5757 – lowest since mid-January. AUD/NZD round tripped from 1.1965 to...
Flat month in US retail
11/2/26 Softer than expected US retail sales supported the case for Fed rate cuts which contributed to a decline in treasury yields and a stronger yen, notes BNZ Markets this morning. US retail sales were unexpectedly flat in December which was well below the 0.4% consensus estimate, says senior fixed interest strategist Stuart Ritson. “Core sales and the control group also undershot expectations. There was broad weakness across the underlying categories. The broader backdrop points to a...
NZD six-month high after USD weakness
29.1.26 US President Donald Trump got the attention of currency markets this week when he added to US dollar downside pressure. He told reporters he was not worried about the recent decline in the currency, saying “No, I think it’s great” notes BNZ Markets. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has attempted to row back that comment, reaffirming that the US always has a strong dollar policy. He added that the US is “absolutely not” intervening in dollar-yen. “Trump’s comments drove the USD DXY index...
US dollar remains under pressure
The US dollar remained under pressure overnight and made broad based losses against G10 currencies, with the dollar index falling to a four-year low, reports BNZ Markets. “The widely watched dollar index (DXY) is on track for the sharpest 4- day decline since the tariff volatility last April and has fallen to the lowest level since early 2022, comments Stuart Rition, senior fixed interest strategist. “Concerns about US economic policy and potential for FX intervention to support the yen have...
NZ dollar trades flat
Net currency moves have been small overnight BNZ Markets comments that JPY is the weakest of the majors, down 0.4% overnight which sees USD/JPY up to 155.50. An expected Bank of Japan hike tomorrow is almost fully priced and some traders don’t see any yen upside from that outcome. “The NZD has traded a range of less than 30pips and is currently around 0.5775. NZD cross movements have been small. NZD/JPY temporarily traded back over 90 overnight before slipping back below the figure.” In the...
Euro weakens after trade deal
After digesting the weekend news of a US-EU trade deal, the net result has been a slump in the euro, a modest fall in European equity markets and a modest fall in European bond yields, reports BNZ Markets “The USD is broadly stronger, reversing last week’s loss,” said Jason Wing, senior marjets strategist at BNZ. “The NZD has sustained a move back below 0.60, while NZD/EUR is up ½% to 0.51500.60, while NZD/EUR is up ½% to 0.5150. It didn’t take long for joy about the negotiated US-EU trade...
Canadian dollar weakens on trade issues
30.5.25 The US dollar was stable on the major crosses but made modest gains against the dollar-bloc currencies. Although the moves were not large, the Canadian dollar (CAD) was the weakest G10 currency after the trade policy developments, notes Stuart Ritson at BNZ Markets. NZD/USD dipped in line with the CAD, trading to a low near 0.6040 before recovering to be little changed from the local close on Friday. NZ fixed income was little changed in the local session on Friday. Yields were 1-2 bp...
US dollar slips on weaker US CPI
12.6.25 Softer than expected US CPI data drove down US rates and the US dollar, although European currencies have been the main beneficiary, says BNZ Markets. US inflation data were weaker than expected, with the CPI ex food and energy, up 0.1% compared to the consensus estimate of 0.3%, meaning that the annual increase was steady at 2.8% against an expected tick higher. The NZ dollar and AUD were little changed after a disappointing end to US-China trade talks, with no progress other than...
US markets buoyed by jobs data
9.6.25 US equity markets made solid gains Friday supported by labour market data and further signs of easing US-China trade tensions. BNZ Markets notes this morning that the S&P closed 1% higher and reached the psychological 6,000 level for the first time since February, as steady employment growth helped ease concerns about an imminent slowdown. “In Europe, the Euro Stoxx index made modest gains. Treasury yields closed higher, and the US dollar gained against G10 currencies. Brent crude...
Consolidation phase for currency markets
15.5.25 Markets are in a consolidation mode, after a flurry of American trade deals from shuttle diplomacy. Markets appear singularly focussed on attempting to gauge the extent of the damage caused by both the deglobalisation of trade and the rules-based system upon which trade was based, says Stephen Toplis, head of research at BNZ. US President Donald Trump has been winding back on the level of tariffs announced in early April. China’s Ministry of Commerce said it had suspended a trade and...
Currencies going in varying directions
16.12.24 The US dollar index was little changed overall in the offshore session Friday, but this masked divergent performance for major currencies, says BNZ Markets. “The yen weakened in line with the higher UST yields while the euro traded higher against the dollar,” says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. “The UK economy contracted for a second straight month in October which weighed on the pound. The NZD was little changed against the dollar. “An initial rally above 0.5770...
Korean won reflects political crisis
The big news overnight was a shock move by South Korea’s president to declare martial law on domestic political grounds, notes BNZ Markets. This follows months of wrangling and a deadlock in parliament between the president’s minority government and the main opposition Democratic Party, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. Lawmakers voted 190 to 0 to request the lifting of martial law. South Korea’s military said it would uphold martial law until ordered to stop by the president....
Greenback bursting higher on Trump talk
27.11.24 The US dollar made sharp gains in the Asian session yesterday, records BNZ Markets this morning. US treasury yields moved higher across the curve, partially retracing the sharp decline, from the previous session, notes Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. 10- year yields are 4bp higher at 4.31% ahead of the US$70 billion 5-year auction. 10-year bunds closed 2bp lower at 2.19%. A 3bp move higher in French yields saw the FranceGermany spread reached the widest level since...
Euro dives on weak manufacturing data
25.11.24 Surprising falls in UK and Euro area PMIs against surprising strength in the US PMI drove down European yields and currencies on Friday while supporting the USD, says BNZ Markets. The euro was down over 1½% to a fresh two-year low before recovering. The NZ dollar was caught in the cross-fire and traded at a fresh low for the year before ending the week around 0.5835,” noted Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. US Treasuries remained in a consolidation mode while equity markets were...
Both Anzac currencies weaker
15.10.24 The NZD and AUD opened trading on a weaker note overnight although that soon morphed into a broad pattern of USD strength, says BNZ Markets. “NZD crosses show only small movements from last week’s close,”: says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist at BBZ Markets. “There are hints that the “Trump” trade is back in action, with a lift in the USD of 0.4% consistent with that theme. “Within US equities, Goldman Sach’s baskets of stocks designed to capture those that benefit/. “Republican...
US market near record highs
11.10.24 US equity markets are little changed with the S&P consolidating near record highs. There was limited lasting impact from higher than expected US CPI data, notes BNZ Markets Global bond yields were little changed overall, and major currencies were mixed against the US dollar. Oil prices gained with Brent crude trading back to US$79 per barrel. “Chinese equities remain volatile, and posted strong gains yesterday, as investors look ahead to the weekend briefing on fiscal policy by...
US Dollar up vs G10 cohort
18.9.24 Fresh economic data didn’t materially change US market pricing for the size of the expected easing in the US Federal funds rate this week, according to BNZ Markets. Headline retail sales in the US increased by 0.1% in August, above consensus expectations for a 0.2% decline. This follows a 1.1% gain in July and points towards a still resilient consumer. US industrial production rose by 0.8% in August, easily beating expectations. “However, there were downward revisions which offset the...
Market awaits the Fed decision this week
16.9.24 Markets closed on Friday with the pricing for the Fed’s first easing for the cycle this week at a toss up between 25bps and 50bps, with media reports adding to the “confusion” says BNZ Markets this morning. The US Treasuries curve steepened further, with a short end-led rally in bonds, comments Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “Lower rates supported US equities, adding to the strong gains for the week. Commodity currencies slightly underperformed, seeing the NZD close the week...
Canadian dollar makes gains
10.10.24 In currency markets the US dollar overnight was broadly stronger, according to BNZ Markets. The Canadian dollar was the only major currency to make any gain, even if small, nogted Jason Wong. senior markets strategist. “Broad USD strength from yesterday afternoon took the NZD down from 0.6185 to as low as 0.6125 overnight before recovering to around 0.6150. “The NZD is flat to modestly weaker on key crosses, including nudging down to 0.9230 against the AUD. NZD/CAD is the biggest...
Kiiw dollar losing ground
9.9.24 Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to volatility across financial markets on Friday night, says BNZ Markets this morning. Growth sensitive assets traded lower with large falls across global equities, notes Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. The S&P fell 1.7%, extending its weekly decline to 4.3%, the largest since March last year. US treasury yields whipsawed but ultimately ended lower in yield. The US dollar index made modest gains. “Growth...
US labour data impacts market
Further signs of cooling in the US labour market contributed to lower yields across bond markets and global equities remained soft after the sharp decline in the previous session, notes Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist at BNZ Markets. The S&P opened lower and is currently close to flat. Equities fell in Europe – the Euro Stoxx closed 1.3% lower – and Asian stocks also declined with the Nikkei falling 4%. The US dollar fell with the move concentrated against the yen. US job...
Steady session for US dollar
The US dollar index (DXY) was little changed overnight amid thin trading volumes, which were running at around 50% of recent averages, notes BNZ Markets “The stability in the DXY masked some underlying movement in G10 currencies,” comments Stuart Ritson, senior e4fixed interest strategist. “The Australian dollar outperformed in the offshore session and is close to 0.5% stronger against the dollar. “On the other end of the spectrum the yen was relatively weak losing 0.6% against the dollar....
US dollar reverses direction
There has been a reversal of recent price action, with US equities weaker, higher rates and a stronger US dollar, notes BNZ Markets today Behind the moves one could point to data suggesting no need for the Fed to panic, Fed speakers arguing for gradualism, and a return of the Trump trade in anticipation of Robert F. Kennedy dropping out of the race and endorsing Trump, commented Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “After an overnight high around 0.6170, the NZD is trading near 0.6140 while...
Slide in US dollar
A broad slide in US dollar continued into London fixing overnight, , before stabilising into Europe’s close, advises Westpac this morning “There were notable rebounds in JPY and other Asian currencies, equities pared back some of their recent gains whilst US yields led global rates lower. US DNC and prospects for Fed easing dominated news flow with limited data of note being released.” Currencies: The US dollar index traded down 0.4% on the day, posting another eight-month low. EUR was trading...
NZ dollar out- performing
A benign US PPI print got the market’s attention and helped drive lower US rates, a lower USD and higher US equities, said BNZ Markets this morning. Against broad-based weakness in the USD, the NZD has outperformed, steadily rising to 0.6075 and higher on the crosses. At yesterday’s close, the market was pricing 17bps worth of cuts for today’s RBNZ MPS, commented Jason Wong, senior markets strategist at BNZ “Significant rate cuts are likely to be projected by the RBNZ, as in May, the only...
Oil sprints higher on M.E. situation
It has been a quiet start to a busy week, with US equities flat, US Treasury yields slightly lower and modest changes in major currencies, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The NZD has outperformed, rising 0.3% to 0.6020 and gaining on all the key crosses. “In contrast to last Monday’s panic-stricken market conditions, the open this week has been pretty dull,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “The US S&P500 has been oscillating between small gains and losses and sits flat as we go...
NZ dollar up against the yen
After the wild ride in markets that began just over a week ago, some sense of normality has returned, noted BNZ Markets senior market strategist Jason Wong. Getting some attention in afternoon trading yesterday was a speech by Bank of Japan deputy Governor Uchida, the first public BoJ comments since last week’s rate hike. Wong notes that trhese comments were interpreted as dovish by the market, where he said that “the bank will not raise its policy interest rate when financial and capital...
Yen the standout on defensive market
The yen has continued to be the standout performer in FX markets with defensive currencies including the Swiss franc outperforming since the start of the week, noyes BNZ <Markjets this morning. “Having opened near 146, USD/JPY traded below 142 but has since recovered in line with the stabilisation in risk sentiment,” said Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist “Despite the massive volatility across asset markets and large intra-day FX moves, G10 currencies are less than 0.5% away...
US dollar weakens on Fed softer tone
Markets have had a plethora of economic data and risk events to digest in the past 24 hours headlined by the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision. The US Federal Reserve left rates on hold, as was unanimously expected, but signalled it is getting closer to lowering policy rates, comments Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist at BNZ Markets. Global bond yields are lower outside of Japan where the central bank raised policy rates by more than expected. The US dollar is broadly weaker led...
