Oil rises and NZ dollar ebbs
27.3.26 Oil prices, the US dollar, and bond yields all rose amid market scepticism that a de-escalation in the Iran war was likely soon, reports Westpac this morning. Currencies: “The US dollar index is up 0.3% on the day. EUR fell from 1.1570 to 1.1523. USD/JPY rose from 159.40 to 159.79. AUD fell from 0.6957 to 0.6885 – lowest since late January,” says Imre Speizer, New Zealand market strategist. “NZD fell from 0.5808 to 0.5757 – lowest since mid-January. AUD/NZD round tripped from 1.1965 to...
WMP prices wobble in latest auction
19.3.26 Prices levelled out at this week’s GlobalDairyTrade auction, with the price index almost neutral at up 0.1%. The benchmark whole milk powder price fell 4% at US$3,709/ MT bringing a halt to recent strong gains. However, overall this was the sixth consecutive rise since the start of the year, following a 5.7% jump at the previous auction, and a 3.6% lift prior to that. Anhydrous milk fat made the best advance, rising 6.4% to an average of US$7602/MT. There was a hint of volatility with...
Gold retreats toward US$5,050
6.3.26 COMMENT Gold prices posted another decline on March 5 extending the losses seen earlier in the week and moving closer to the $ 5,050-per-ounce level. Antonio Di Giacomo, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com comments that prices have been mainly pressured by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and economic data reinforcing the resilience of the U.S. economy. Attacks on vessels and disruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have...
Pullback in global gold price
29.12.25 COMMENTARY The global price of gold settled back today, with the metal marked at US$4,537.70 a troy ounce, down $15.00. Rania Gule, senior market analyst at XS.com – MENA, commented in a note that the gold market is “currently going through a delicate phase that clearly reflects the nature of this asset as a mirror of macroeconomic balances, rather than merely a commodity subject to short-term speculation.” “The recent pullback in gold prices from record highs, which began during the...
Precious metals prices mixed
23.12.25 The precious metals index continued to advance in November, though at a moderate rate. The index rose by 0.9%, m-o-m, supported by gains in gold and silver prices, though a decline in platinum prices over the period partially offset gains. The index was up by 55.4%, y-o-y. Gold prices rose for a fourth consecutive month, increasing by 0.7%, m-o-m, in November. “Momentum from the previous month lifted gold prices over the month, but gains were partially offset by improved...
Gold mine project at Waihi North consented
OceanaGold’s major mining project, Waihi North, was consented through the fast –track process to expand operations until 2043 through the Fast-track process Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop said the Waihi North mining project is “a nationally significant investment that will deliver substantial economic benefits. The project took 112 working days to approve, from the time the panel was convened. Resources Minister Shane Jones estimated that had it gone through the usual process, approval...
FTA ‘great outcome’ for forestry
22.12.25 The New Zealand Forest Owners Association welcomed the new Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between New Zealand and India, which eliminates tariffs on over 95% of forestry and wood exports to Indian consumers, The FTA offers new opportunities for Kiwi forest owners and wood processors in a significant growth market. The New Zealand-India FTA is a big win for all New Zealand exporters, but especially those in the forestry space, says Dr Elizabeth Heeg, chief executive of the New Zealand...
New trade deal unleashes huge potential
22.12.25 The India-NZ Free Trade Agreement unleashes huge potential for our New Zealand exporters to the world’s largest country. New Zealand will have duty-free access for a large kiwifruit quota – nearly four times the current exports - with a 50 per cent tariff applying outside quota. For the first time in an FTA, India has agreed preferential market access for apples and mānuka honey, says Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay. “The FTA has broad services coverage and builds...
NZ’s red meat exports demand surge
10.6.25 New Zealand’s red meat sector out-performance was evident in April with overall exports worth $1.21 billion, according to the Meat Industry Association. This represented an impressive 34% boost year-on-year, and was driven by growth in almost all major markets. The United States was the largest market for the month with exports worth $344 million, up 39% from last April. This was followed by China at $253 million, up 9%, the United Kingdom at $81 million, up 56%, the Netherlands with...
Export prices resistant to US tariffs so far.
15.5.25 Favourable supply and demand fundamentals should continue to support commodity prices over the coming year, say Westpac economists. The big unknown is how higher tariffs imposed globally may impact these prices over time. Westpac’s forecast for this season’s farmgate milk price remains at $10.30/kg, with $10.00/kg expected for the 2025/26 season. Westpac see some modest upside risk to the latter, depending in part on how the New Zealand dollar performs. They noted in a report ‘Agri...
Strong lift in dairy prices
7.5.25 This week’s GDT dairy auction showed a strong 4.6% lift in the price index, the strongest gain this year The gain was supported by a 6.2% lift in whole milk powder, while skim milk powder rose just 0.5%. Chedder (+12%) and butter (+3.8%) also showed strong gains. Jason Wong, at BNZ Markets commented, “The weaker USD helped inflate prices, so the NZD gains aren’t as large, but dairy prices still look very strong against the backdrop of soft pricing for industrial commodities and fears of...
Bull market in dairy auction
16.4.25 Dairy prices may be entering a bull run with the latest global auction this week showing a 1.6% up-shift in the GlobalDairyTrade price index. The average winning price was US$4,385 / metric tonne. Rose 1.1% at the last auction two weeks ago and the new wholemilk powder prices are the highest in nearly three years (July 2022). The price of wholemilk powder, which drives farmgate prices, increased 2.8% to US$4,171 a tonne NZX dairy analyst Rosalind Crickett told RNZ the "dairy bulls" had...
Solid start to 2025 for prices
10.2.25 The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose 1.8% m/m in January. The NZD eased a further 1.2% in January, pushing up the NZD Trade Weighted Index by 3.2% m/m. “All sectors except forestry managed to lift during the month, but the largest gains were made by meat and wool”, said ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner. “Global shipping prices were mixed. The volatile Baltic Dry Index fell a whopping 31% during the month to its lowest level since early 2023. Shipping prices into and out of China...
Varying pace for primary sector
13.12.24 New Zealand’s primary sector is recovering, but at varying speeds across sectors, says ANZ Bank agri economist Susan Kilsby. “The dairy sector is doing well, with milk prices now forecast to reach record levels this season. Most dairying regions are also ahead on production, which will bolster returns. “Beef markets are also doing well, and this is expected to continue despite the threat of the US imposing import tariffs. Beef is our largest export to this market. “Other sectors, such...
Better export prices for dairy and meat sectors
Overall commodity prices are forecast to lift off the back of higher dairy prices and better export prices for both beef and lamb, comments Westpac in a current update. Dairy prices have lifted at recent auctions. That includes whole milk powder prices, which have ticked higher on the back of stronger buying out of China. Prices at the GlobalDairyTrade auctions continue to trend higher, with both whole milk powder and cheddar posting gains in recent months. Prices for skim milk powder...
Fonterra tops up rural cash-flow
23.8.24 Fonterra Co-operative Group brightened the outlook for the dairy sector by announcing a 50 cent increase in the forecast Farmgate Milk Price midpoint for the 2024/25 season, alongside an uplift to the FY25 Advance Rate Schedule The co-operative, New Zealand’s largest exporter, advised its FY24 earnings are forecast to be at the top end of the announced range of 60-70 cents per share. CEO Miles Hurrell says the announcements reflect the recent lift in GDT prices as well as the strength...
Volatility in the oil markets
15.8.24 Shipping Gazette - Crude spot prices rose for the second month in July, as physical crude market fundamentals remained solid, noted OPEC this week. The world oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down slightly by 135 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment. It now stands at a healthy 2.1 mb/d, well above the historical average of 1.4 mb/d seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. World economic growth is forecast at 2.9% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, both unchanged from last...
Kiwi dollar probing 3-month low
Newsflow has been light and market movements have been well contained at the start of a busy week, notes BNZ Markets. US equities are flat, global rates are down slightly and the US Dollsr is slightly stronger, with the NZ dollar probing fresh multi-month lows below 0.5860, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “In the currency market, the USD is broadly stronger, although gains have been small. “The NZD and AUD continue to struggle against the backdrop of lower commodity prices. The NZD...
Lower commodity prices drag NZD
US equities are flat and US Treasury yields are slightly lower, while lower commodity prices continue to drag down the NZD and AUD, notes BNZ Markets this morning. While the yen remains flavour of the week. The NZD is probing the 0.5950 level, says Jason Wong, senior market strategist. On the US political scene, VP Harris looks to have the numbers to secure the Democratic nomination for the Presidential election, with her selection now seen as a foregone conclusion. Her billing has attracted a...
New record gold price
17.7.24 Gold hit a record high of US$2465 an ounce overnight. “It also benefits from lower interest rates, given the cost of holding the precious metal, as it bears no interest,” comments BNZ Markets. “Gold has rallied by close to 50% since late 2022, underpinned by demand from central banks, to diversify reserves and reduce their reliance on the US dollar,” says Stuart Ritson at BNZ
WMP drags on dairy auction
20.6.24 The GDT dairy auction price index fell 0.5% this week, after a string of strong auctions. “Whole milk power was a drag on the result, falling 2.5% while skim milk powder rose 0.7%,” said BNZ Markets. The auction was mixed with whole milk powder (-2.5%) and Cheddar prices (-1.0%) falling, and skim milk powder (0.7%) and butter (6.2%) rising. Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold commented, “Chinese buyers pulled back this time, but Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern buyers took...
US dollar gathers strength
5.6.24 The US dollar is broadly stronger overnight, seeing the NZ dollar slightly weaker after its run towards 0.62 yesterday, commented Jason Wing, senior markets strategist. The yen has outperformed as the market anticipates less BoJ bond buying ahead. US Treasury yields have fallen for a fourth successive day, seeing the 10-year rate down towards 4.3%, supported by safe-haven flows after some surprising EM election results, lower oil prices, and softer US labour market data. “There have...
Flatter tone to markets
8.5.24 Against a backdrop of little fresh news, US Treasury yields continue to edge lower, with the 10-year rate down to a four-week low, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The USD is stronger, although movements have been small to modest across the board and the NZD is close to 0.60, adds Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “It has been another uneventful trading session. Equity markets continued to recover, with the US S&P500 index returning to 5200 intraday, but as we go to print the...
NZ dollar flat in quiet market week
It has been a quiet start to the week in what will likely be a quiet week overall, with a very light economic and event calendar, notes BNZ Markets this morning. “With UK and Japan holidays, trading conditions are lighter than normal, says Jason Wong, senuior markets strategist. “Global rates are slightly lower, with the US 10-year rate consolidating just below 4.5%. The NZD has spent most of the day consolidating just over 0.60, while the yen is weaker after last week’s strong recovery. “In...
Yen outperforms on intervention
Markets have settled after the flurry following the Fed’s policy update yesterday and the moves have been in a similar direction, with US Treasury yields falling further and the USD weaker, says BNZ Markets this morning Jason Wong, senior markets strategist says, “JPY has outperformed, after another bout of official intervention shook out some more speculative positions. The NZD has pushed up through 0.5960. “A couple of market dynamics have been in play, the consolidation of moves post the...
Cautious tone on financial markets
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack, notes BNZ Markets this morning. US equities are down close to 1% and oil prices are barely lower, with Brent crude about US$90. US Treasury yields rose to fresh 2024 highs, with much stronger than expected US retail sales being a factor. “The USD has been well supported, with the yen, NZD and AUD notable underperformers, weakening to fresh lows,” says Jason Wong, senior markets...
Commodity currencies remain firm
9.4.24 Market movements have been well contained to kick off the week without any key catalysts to perturb pricing, says BNZ Markets this morning. Jason Wong, senior markets strategist, notes “There was a total eclipse of the sun in the US and a total eclipse of the year-to-date highs for US rates overnight, before they settled back down, seeing the 10-year Treasury yield little changed from the NZ close.” US equities are slightly higher and the USD is slightly weaker. “The NZD and AUD have...
Mixed situation for NZ commodities
5.4.24 The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell 1.3% m/m in March as dairy and forestry prices fell, comments Susan KIlsby, senior agri economist at ANZ. In New Zealand dollar terms, the index fell 0.4% m/m as the NZD lost 0.8% against the Trade Weighted Index. Global shipping prices have eased slightly but still remain relatively high due to ongoing congestion in global shipping channels, says Ms Kilsby. “The Baltic Dry Index, which tends to be particularly volatile, eased 10% in March, but...
Dairy auction prices retreat
7.3.24 Dairy prices pulled back slightly at this week’s Dairy Trade auction. Overall prices were down 2.3% and the key whole milk powder (WMP) prices fell 2.8%. “This auction was weaker than recent auctions but more in line with recent weaker futures market trends and particularly the outcome of the GDT Pulse auction held on February 27, “ commented Kelly Eckhold, Westpac NZ’s chief economist. Most products posted price falls although cheese prices continued recent volatility, rising...
Commodity markets remain fragile
7.3.24 The ANZ World Commodity Price Index gained 3.5% m/m in February as both dairy and meat prices improved. In New Zealand dollar terms, the index lifted 4.1% m/m as the NZ dollar fell 0.8% against the US dollar. ANZ agri economist Susan Kilsby commented that “Global shipping prices are generally trending higher as problems traversing the Suez and Panama Canals are making journeys longer and more expensive. “New Zealand’s smaller exporters are more exposed to the recent changes in...
