Kiwi dollar firm on quiet market
Currency markets were subdued for the most part through the weekend, says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist at BNZ Markets this morning. The dollar index (DXY) dipped briefly, aligned with the move in treasury yields, but ended little changed against the major pairings. There was a notable outperformance by Australasian currencies despite the stable DXY. The yen largely looked past comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda that financial conditions will remain easy even after the...
Broad strength for US dollar
Global rates have pushed higher, ahead of a chunky 30-year US Treasury auction and some nerves regarding US CPI revisions due tonight, said BNZ Markets this morning. US equities are flat, with the S&P500 still unable to break the 5000 mark after getting within a fraction of a point yesterday, noted Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. The USD is broadly stronger, dragging the NZD back below 0.61, the yen has underperformed and NZD/AUD is getting close to 0.94. US Treasury yields have...
Sterling out-performs on quiet market
There was subdued activity in currency markets overnight with the US dollar index oscillating in a narrow range, notes BNZ Markets this morning. “The pound was the best performing currency within the G10 after data revealed a strong rise in UK house prices,” says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist “NZD/USD was little changed in offshore trade. NZD/AUD extended the gains from the local session and traded up towards 0.9375 which is the highest level for the year.” NZ yields ended...
Chinese moves lift yuan
Overnight, there has been little news but the US 10-year year Treasury yield has fallen modestly after the hefty two-day sell-off that followed the blockbuster payrolls report on Friday. US equities are flat, says BNZ Markets this morning. The NZD and AUD have found some support, helped by a slightly stronger yuan on speculation of more policy support for the beleaguered Chinese sharemarket, comments Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. The NZD is trading around 0.6075, off yesterday’s fresh...
Downturn in US dollar
2.2.24 Benign US economic data supported Treasuries, and drove a downturn in the US dollar, helping the NZ dollar recover from overnight lows, notes BNZ Markets this morning. In the wake of the Fed’s policy update yesterday and the regional banking “scare”, US Treasury yields have pushed down further to fresh lows for the year. The Bank of England removed its tightening bias but didn’t rock the market, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. The Fed officially removed any remnants...
Monetary policy weighs on US dollar
Weaker technology stocks contributed to a fall in US equities as the market looked ahead to the FOMC this morning (NZT). The Federal Reserve was expected to transition away from a tightening bias and prepare the way for easier policy in coming meetings. Commented BNZ Markets. “A plunge in the shares of New York Community Bank, which bought the failed Signature Bank last year, reignited concerns about US regional banks and impacted market sentiment,” says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest...
US dollar on the rebound
The US dollar rebounded from the session lows following the move higher in front end treasury yields but currency markets were broadly subdued and confined to narrow ranges, says BNZ Markets this morning. NZD/USD slipped in offshore trade after making highs near 0.6150 in the local session yesterday, adds Stuart Ritson, senior interest rate strategist. “The NZD gained traction after a widely anticipated speech by RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway. “The speech downplayed recent softer...
Markets await torrent of data
Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of an eventful week, says BNZ Markets this morning. The week includes policy meetings from the US Fed and BoE, key global economic releases, earnings reports from some of the US market’s magnificent seven, and the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement. “On paper, the calendar doesn’t come any more eventful than this,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist at BNZ Markets. “With all that to look forward to, the market has started the week on a...
US GDP for 4Q23 lands smoothly
Overnight there was only a modest market reaction to stronger than expected US GDP figures and the ECB policy update, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Jason Wong, senior markets strategist says ECB President Lagarde didn’t significantly push back on market pricing for an early rate cut, seeing European rates and the EUR lower, but not materially so. US Treasury rates are slightly lower, with signs of inflation well under control despite the resilient economic backdrop. The NZD is tracking just...
Netflix stars on rampant Nasdaq
25.1.24 American markets were a mixture but the same recipe as before : the Dow Jones lower (by 99 points to 37,806.39) but the S&P 500 up for the 4th day to a new record at 4,868.55, +3.95. And the Nasdaq soaring by 10.7% to 15,481.92, +55.07, the 5th day the tech board has rallied. Leaders on Nasdaq today included Netflix which jumped US$52.68 to US$544.87 on a US$3 trillion mark in market cap being achieved. Tonight, when you hook up with Netflix consider this: you will be one of the...
US market has mixed day
24.1.23 American markets were mixed after the forward guidance from some companies reporting overnight fell short on expectations. The Dow dropped 96.36 to 37,905.45 which eroded the short-lived all-time record above 38,000. The S&P 500 was positive with a gain of 14.17 to 4864.60 and Nasdaq rose 65.64 at 15,425.94. Lockheed Martin Corporation [NYSE: LMT] today reported fourth quarter 2023 net sales of $18.9 billion, compared to $19.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022. Net earnings in...
Stocks at record highs in USA
The stockmarket rally in the US has accelerated taking some famous indices to their highest level in market history. That mark was reached with a 138 point lift in the Dow Jones that carried the US index above 38,000 for the first time, to close this morning at 38,001.81. The S&P 500 rose 10.62 to a record 4850.43 and the Nasdaq was up 49.32 to 15,360.21. The mood is buoyed by a strengthening economy and occurred against the backdrop of the New Hampshire Republican party presidential...
Commodity currencies slightly soft
It has been a typically quiet start to the week, with little news flow, says BNZ Markets this morning. But that hasn’t stopped the record-breaking run of US equities to continue, says senior markets strategist Jason Wong. Global bond rates have pushed lower, and currency markets only show small movements, the NZD seeing some support just under 0.61. “Yesterday, Ron DeSantis dropped out of the Republican presidential nomination race and pledged his support for Donald Trump, adding to the chance...
US dollar extending gains
18.1.124 The US dollar has extended recent gains with the dollar index (DXY) reaching the highest level in more than a month, according to BNZ Markets this morning. “The DXY now rebounded more than 3% since the late-December lows,” says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. “The pound outperformed within the G10 following the inflation data while the yen was relatively weak given its sensitivity to US treasury yields. NZD/USD slipped below 0.6100 which is the weakest level in...
MARKETWEEK: Modest 2023 score for the NZX
30.12.23 Warren Head The New Zealand sharemarket’s upwards flick of 1.81 points on Friday carried the NZX50 to a close of 11,770.49 for the year. It has clearly not been a remarkable year for the NZX market. The annual gain of 2.6% in NZX50 term is however much improved on 2022’s 12% decline. Staring down the barrel of a potentially 2-year recession, the immediate direction of the NZ bourse is uncertain despite the NZ market looking decidedly under-valued. This plays heavily into the hands...
MARKETWEEK: Market on straight flight path
23.12.23 Warren Head After a few days of limp business, retail stores lifted in pace of sales this weekend but likely too late to do more than straighten up the flight path to Christmas Day. The end of week close of the sharemarket for the Christmas festival saw the NZX50 close off at 11,634.43 for a weekly gain of 84.33 points. The American markets were mixed on the close today in the States, where the Dow Jones shut at 37,385.97, for a weekly rise of 80.81 points. The S&P 500...
NZ Market Report 20.12.23
The hopes of a summer rally running into Christmas week dissipated today as sellers checked 37.57 points off the NZX50 at 11,579.80. The biggest fall came from F&P Healthcare, off 34c to $23.76 in a continuation of the erratic trading we’ve now seen for some months. Retailer Briscoe shed 14c to $4.51, while Mercury NZ lost 19c at $6.41. Auckland Airport lost 10c at $8.50, Mainfreight 10c off at $68.75 and Infratil eased back 9c at $9.90. With the Black Friday retail trading period...
New record set by Dow Jones
19.12.23 In the US technology stocks led the market higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones hitting a fresh record at 37,306.02 as investors choose to believe a soft landing for the US economy is likely in 2024. But it was only a fractional lift of less than 0.01% that claimed the new peak. Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon all improved by around 3%. The S&P 500 was up 0.45% at 4,740.56, while the Nasdaq rose to 14,904.81. Apple shares were not among the gainers as the market...
Central bank decisions spark rally
After the large rally across global asset markets following the US Federal Reserve forecast it would implement 75 bps of cuts next year, focus overnight shifted to rates decisions by major European central banks, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) left rates on hold and sounded cautious on the outlook signalling that investor bets on imminent rate cuts may be premature, says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. “The ECB...
Tight channel for NZ dollar
13.12.23 Overnight, there has been a little market volatility around the US CPI release, says BNZ Markets this morning Net market movements have been modest following the in-line result, slightly disappointing a market that wants to see better figures to justify much easier monetary policy next year, notes Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. US equities, the USD and US rates are all pretty flat. The NZD is currently 0.6120, down a little overnight and up a little from this time yesterday....
AUD eases on weaker China data
12.12.23 It has been a typically quiet start to the week, more so given the lack of data and ahead of some key risk events this week, including the US CPI tonight, says BNZ Markets this morning A weaker yen has been the only market movement of note; other currencies show only small changes, US equities are flat and US Treasury yields are modestly higher,” notes Jason Wong, seniuor markets strategist. “In the lead-up to Christmas, the week ahead is full of key data releases and central bank...
US dollar eases and yen advances
8.12.23 The US dollar was broadly weaker, and the yen advanced to its strongest level since August following hawkish comments by Japanese policy makers, notes BNZ Markets this morning, US equity markets gained, and treasury yields retraced from an earlier move higher as investors look ahead to key data on the US labour market, says Stuart Ritson, senior interest rates strategist. Oil prices were little changed after touching a five-month low earlier in the week with the market unconvinced that...
Local currencies drift lower
Newsflow has been light to start the week and it has begun with a “risk-off” tone, a reversal of the recent trend, notes BNZ Markets. US Treasury highs have jumped higher, US equities are lower, and the USD is broadly stronger. “It has been a typically quiet start to the week and the market is taking a breather from the hefty moves we’ve seen recently, after embracing a view that the Fed has finished tightening and increasing the scope for easier policy next year,” comments Jason Wong, senior...
KIwi dollar reverses after spike
Aided by a stronger USD overnight, the NZ dollar has reversed yesterday’s post-MPS rally, after the RBNZ’s surprising forecast update which showed an increased chance of tighter policy and a higher-for-longer rate track, notes BNZ Markets. NZD/USD is trading back around 0.6150. Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data, extending the recent rally and seeing the US 10-year rate fall to as low as 4.25% overnight, says Jason Wong. senior markets strategist. “There has been...
Policy -on-hold mood thickens
The NZD has pushed up to fresh highs, approaching 0.6150, says BNZ Markets this morning. Senior markets strategist Jason Wong says, “US Treasury yields are lower, led by the short end, the USD is weaker and US equities are higher, following comments by Fed Governor Waller which seemed to support the market narrative that the Fed’s tightening cycle was over. The focus overnight has been on Fed speakers and respected Governor Waller has helped extend the moves in markets we’ve seen so far in...
NZ dollar steadily rises
27.11.23 It was a subdued end to the trading week across global markets in the absence of first-tier economic releases and with a holiday-shortened session for US markets, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The S&P was near unchanged, and closed 1% higher on the week, which was the fourth straight weekly advance. “The US Dollar extended recent declines, global bond yields moved higher and oil prices fell after OPEC+ delayed a scheduled meeting amid a dispute about output quotas,” says Stuart...
NZ dollar eases back
23.11.23 US jobless claims and inflation expectations data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines, while providing broad support for the USD, says BNZ Markets this morning. “Thus, the NZD hasn’t managed to hold onto its recent gains and has fallen to just over the 0.60 mark,” says Jason Wong, senior market strategist at BNZ Markets. “In a reflection of how fickle markets are at the moment, and their sensitivity to anything that might have an...
Kiwi dollar break to the upside
]22.11.23 Overnight trading conditions have been uneventful, but the NZD has managed to hold on to most of the gains seen during local trading hours from the tailwind of stronger Asian currencies, notes BNZ Markets this morning The US 10-year rate has consolidated near its recent two-month lows, with the drift down in global rates providing further support to the yen, says senior markets strategist Jason Wong. “One of the most notable events in financial markets over the past 24 hours has been...
Asian currencies to the fore
The US dollar has extended its recent decline. “It has been under pressure amid softer than expected inflation and activity data which has reinforced investors' expectations that the Fed tightening cycle is complete.” Notes Stuart Riston at BNZ Market. The dollar index fell a further 0.4%. “Asian currencies have performed strongly. USD/JPY couldn’t regain the psychological 150 level in Asian trade yesterday before trading 0.8% lower. Large speculative short Yen positioning could exacerbate any...
USD weaker, equities gain
US equities made modest gains on Friday in the absence of first-tier economic data or other market drivers, NOTES bnz mARKETS THIS MORNING The S&P ended up 0.1%, and consolidated above 4,500, having advanced close to 2% during the week. US investment grade credit spreads were little changed, and are close to the tightest levels for 2023, after the recent strong performance in risk sensitive assets. The US dollar was weak across the board and 10-year US treasuries were stable. News that...
