Local currencies drift lower
Newsflow has been light to start the week and it has begun with a “risk-off” tone, a reversal of the recent trend, notes BNZ Markets. US Treasury highs have jumped higher, US equities are lower, and the USD is broadly stronger. “It has been a typically quiet start to the week and the market is taking a breather from the hefty moves we’ve seen recently, after embracing a view that the Fed has finished tightening and increasing the scope for easier policy next year,” comments Jason Wong, senior...
NZ dollar goes back upstairs
4.12.23 The US dollar moved higher initially on Friday night and remained near the highs until a speech by US Federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The dollar index then reversed swiftly in line with lower treasury yields. The euro was a notable underperformer within G10 currencies as was the Canadian dollar. NZD/USD traded above 0.6200 to the highest level in 4-months and NZD/EUR is back at 0.5700. “Lower US yields have contributed to a fall in USD/JPY...
US dollar makes good gains
Global bonds are higher in yield while the US dollar advanced, says BNZ Markets this morning. In currency markets the US Dollar made broad based gains, particularly against European currencies, says Stuart Ritson. The 0.5% increase in the Dollar index trimmed its monthly losses to close to 3%. EUR/USD fell more than 0.5% in a move which gained momentum following the soft European inflation data. NZD/USD had choppy price action in offshore trade and is marginally weaker against the US...
KIwi dollar reverses after spike
Aided by a stronger USD overnight, the NZ dollar has reversed yesterday’s post-MPS rally, after the RBNZ’s surprising forecast update which showed an increased chance of tighter policy and a higher-for-longer rate track, notes BNZ Markets. NZD/USD is trading back around 0.6150. Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data, extending the recent rally and seeing the US 10-year rate fall to as low as 4.25% overnight, says Jason Wong. senior markets strategist. “There has been...
No change to OCR but hawkish tone
The RBNZ left the OCR at 5.5% as expected but was more hawkish on future prospects. The RBNZ's projections signal the risk of further increases in the OCR in 2024. An easing cycle looks quite some time off., says Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold. The RBNZ’s projections for the OCR were revised 10bp higher to a peak of 5.69% in September 2024, implying around a 75% chance of a further 25bp rate hike. The projections imply a gradual easing of policy from the first half of 2025. The long-run...
Policy -on-hold mood thickens
The NZD has pushed up to fresh highs, approaching 0.6150, says BNZ Markets this morning. Senior markets strategist Jason Wong says, “US Treasury yields are lower, led by the short end, the USD is weaker and US equities are higher, following comments by Fed Governor Waller which seemed to support the market narrative that the Fed’s tightening cycle was over. The focus overnight has been on Fed speakers and respected Governor Waller has helped extend the moves in markets we’ve seen so far in...
NZ dollar steadily rises
27.11.23 It was a subdued end to the trading week across global markets in the absence of first-tier economic releases and with a holiday-shortened session for US markets, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The S&P was near unchanged, and closed 1% higher on the week, which was the fourth straight weekly advance. “The US Dollar extended recent declines, global bond yields moved higher and oil prices fell after OPEC+ delayed a scheduled meeting amid a dispute about output quotas,” says Stuart...
NZ dollar and AUD firm
Markets are quiet, with the US on holiday but European bond yields have pushed higher, with slightly better than expected PMIs, a backdrop of hawkish ECB commentary and Germany suspending its debt limit all in the mix, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Currency movements have been modest overnight, and the NZD has held onto its small gain seen during local trading hours and currently sits around 0.6050. Early November readings for PMI data in Europe and UK showed a broad-based lift in activity...
NZ dollar eases back
23.11.23 US jobless claims and inflation expectations data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines, while providing broad support for the USD, says BNZ Markets this morning. “Thus, the NZD hasn’t managed to hold onto its recent gains and has fallen to just over the 0.60 mark,” says Jason Wong, senior market strategist at BNZ Markets. “In a reflection of how fickle markets are at the moment, and their sensitivity to anything that might have an...
Kiwi dollar break to the upside
]22.11.23 Overnight trading conditions have been uneventful, but the NZD has managed to hold on to most of the gains seen during local trading hours from the tailwind of stronger Asian currencies, notes BNZ Markets this morning The US 10-year rate has consolidated near its recent two-month lows, with the drift down in global rates providing further support to the yen, says senior markets strategist Jason Wong. “One of the most notable events in financial markets over the past 24 hours has been...
