Yen the standout on defensive market
The yen has continued to be the standout performer in FX markets with defensive currencies including the Swiss franc outperforming since the start of the week, noyes BNZ <Markjets this morning. “Having opened near 146, USD/JPY traded below 142 but has since recovered in line with the stabilisation in risk sentiment,” said Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist “Despite the massive volatility across asset markets and large intra-day FX moves, G10 currencies are less than 0.5% away...
US dollar weakens on Fed softer tone
Markets have had a plethora of economic data and risk events to digest in the past 24 hours headlined by the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision. The US Federal Reserve left rates on hold, as was unanimously expected, but signalled it is getting closer to lowering policy rates, comments Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist at BNZ Markets. Global bond yields are lower outside of Japan where the central bank raised policy rates by more than expected. The US dollar is broadly weaker led...
Japanese yen on move higher
31.7.24 The Japanese yen strengthened after a media report that the Bank of Japan will consider a 15bps hike at today’s meeting, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The NZD has outperformed alongside the yen, seeing it return to 0.59, add Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. US economic data were slightly better than expected, with job openings falling only 46k to 8184k in June. The quits rate was steady at 2.1 from a downwardly revised May. Both indicators have been trending down, signalling a...
Kiwi dollar probing 3-month low
Newsflow has been light and market movements have been well contained at the start of a busy week, notes BNZ Markets. US equities are flat, global rates are down slightly and the US Dollsr is slightly stronger, with the NZ dollar probing fresh multi-month lows below 0.5860, says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “In the currency market, the USD is broadly stronger, although gains have been small. “The NZD and AUD continue to struggle against the backdrop of lower commodity prices. The NZD...
Yen remains the front-runner
25.7.24 The yen continues to outperform, while the NZ dollar recovered slightly overnight after falling further through the NZ trading session, says BNZ Markets this morning. In currency markets, JPY continues its outperforming run as short positions are unwound. USD/JPY is trading just at 154, having fallen to as low as 153.11 overnight, while NZD/JPY continues to tumble, now down to 91.3, down 3½% this week so far and down nearly 8% from its high just a couple of weeks ago. Both the NZD and...
Lower commodity prices drag NZD
US equities are flat and US Treasury yields are slightly lower, while lower commodity prices continue to drag down the NZD and AUD, notes BNZ Markets this morning. While the yen remains flavour of the week. The NZD is probing the 0.5950 level, says Jason Wong, senior market strategist. On the US political scene, VP Harris looks to have the numbers to secure the Democratic nomination for the Presidential election, with her selection now seen as a foregone conclusion. Her billing has attracted a...
Commodities tug Kiwi lower
23.7.24 Weaker commodity prices have dragged down the AUD and NZD, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Jason Wong, senior markets strategist comments that there were notable underperformances by both against a backdrop of only small moves in the other key majors. “Relative to last week’s close, the AUD is down 0.6% to 0.6640 while the NZD is down 0.5% to 0.5980, with NZD/AUD up slightly to 0.90. Yesterday we noted the poor technicals for the NZD and the break of 0.60 brings the April low near...
US dollar stays under pressure
The US dollar remained under pressure, particularly against the yen, through the wee3kdn, notes BNZ Markets. “The yen has been supported in the aftermath of suspected intervention, which was seemingly confirmed, by analysis of the Bank of Japan’s accounts<” says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. “USD/JPY fell to 158, some 2.5% below the recent peak. The dollar index is retesting support near 104 which has formed the base on several occasions over the past three months....
US dollar slightly higher
The US dollar rose slightly overnight while bond yields were volatile but only modestly higher, reports Westpac this morning. .US Fed Chair Powell’s testimony was balanced and offered little new information. The US dollar index is up 0.2% on the day. EUR fell from 1.0820 to 1.0806. USD/JPY rose from 160.80 to 161.52. AUD ranged between 0.6724 and 0.6747. NZD ranged between 0.6112 and 0.6132. AUD/NZD ranged between 1.0994 and 1.1019 – a two-month high.
NZ dollar modestly weaker
9.7.24 Market movements have been well-contained to start the week, with little impact from the shock French election result on Sunday notes BNZ Markets this morning. Key equity markets show modest changes and US Treasury yields are little changed. The NZD has underperformed and is modestly weaker, trading around 0.6130. “As the new week got underway there was some interest in how the market would react to the surprise French Parliamentary election held Sunday,” says Jason Wong, senior market...
USD volatile while NZD firm
The S&P advanced to fresh all-time high after softer than expected US labour market data led to investors bringing forward expectations for Fed rate cuts, says Stuart Ritson at BNZ Markets this morning. The S&P closed 0.5% higher extending the year-to-date gains to 17%. European equities closed lower as the market looked ahead to the second round of the French election. “Early projections suggest the left wing coalition, New Popular Front, has unexpectedly won the most seats which will...
US dollar weakens on negative data
4.7.24 The US dollar made broad based losses against G10 currencies in mid -week following weaker economic data. Activity in the US services sector slumped to a 4-year low. The services ISM fell 5 points to 48.8, which was far weaker than all the estimates on the Bloomberg poll of economists, noted BNZ Markets. The new orders and employment sub-indices declined sharply into contractionary territory and prices paid edged lower. “Survey respondents reported that in general, business was flat to...
Anzac currencies top performers
The US dollar was marginally weaker against G10 currencies with month and quarter end flows impacting price action, reports BNZ Markets this morning. “Australasian currencies were amongst the top performers gaining more than 0.5% against the US dollar in the offshore session,” says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. “Despite the modest decline into quarter end, the dollar index remains just below the 2024 highs reached in April after making steady gains in June. “USD/JPY traded...
NZ dollar down under USD pressure
27.6.24 Against a backdrop of broad US dollar strength, the NZ dollar has fallen to just below 0.6080, notes BNZ Markets. The Kiwi was also underperforming on NZD/AUD cross selling pressure. “USD/JPY marched up through 160 with ease, to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of forthcoming yen intervention,” said senior markets strategist Jason Wong. “The Peoples Bank of China continues to allow a slightly softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI print that...
Canadian inflation sparks again
26.6.24 Market movements continue to be well contained, noted BNZ Markets this morning. US equities are up modestly, US Treasuries yields are up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation figures positively surprised, but this had more sustained impact on rates than the CAD. The NZD has traded a tight range and is down slightly to 0.6120. US Treasuries continue to trade tight ranges. The 10-year Treasury met resistance again near the 4.2% mark and is currently up...
Weaker US dollar on quiet markets
It has been a quiet start to the week in what could be a quiet week overall, commented Jason Wong at BNZ Markets today. Market movements have been well contained. The S&P500 is down slightly, US Treasury yields show little net change and the USD is broadly weaker, with the NZD slightly higher around 0.6130. Oil prices continue to push higher. Newsflow has been light and the economic calendar for the entire week looks light. US PCE deflator data and the first US Presidential election...
US dollar pushes higher
The US dollar advanced against G10 currencies and global bonds were little changed, rebounding from an earlier move lower in yields, noted BNZ Markets this morning. “The US dollar was generally stronger with the dollar index gaining 0.2% to close at a six-week high. USD/JPY closed just below 160, a level which prompted Japanese officials to intervene to prop up the yen, at the end of April,” says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist at BNZ Markets “The US Treasury Department has...
Markets generally subdued with US holiday
Global markets were confined to narrow ranges with the US observing a public holiday. US equity, bonds, and most commodity markets were closed. European equities traded lower with the Euro Stoxx falling 0.6%. The Hang Seng had a strong session and advanced nearly 3%. Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist at BNZ Markets comments, “The move was attributed to further market-friendly reforms such as allowing Chinese investors to buy Hong Kong stocks using the yuan. “Currency markets were...
NZ dollar and AUD have soft start
Currency markets showed only modest movements at the start of the week, noted BNZ Markets this morning. The modest recovery in the euro has spilled over into other European currencies, says senior market strategist Jason Wong Currency movements have been small, with the NZD giving up a little of last week’s gain and the euro being the best performer, albeit up only 0.3%. After last week’s beating dealt to European assets, centred on France because of heightened political risk ahead of the snap...
USD drops on Fed no-change, NZD higher
Softer than expected US CPI data contributed to large moves across global markets ahead of the FOMC decision at the US Federal Reserve overnight. “Bond yields fell sharply as investors increased the amount of easing expected by the Fed this year,” said Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist at BNZ Markets. The US dollar declined. Equity markets advanced with the S&P making a fresh all-time high. “The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates unchanged as expected. The Fed’s forecasts...
NZ dollar holding its ground
6.6.24 The US dollar was mixed but generally stronger against G10 currencies in the overnight session, according to BNZ Markets this morning. “In the majors, the yen fell 0.3% against the US dollar while the euro was little changed,” notes Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. “The Canadian dollar dropped almost 0.5% following the BoC decision before paring its losses. “The NZD was confined to a narrow range against the US dollar and is largely unchanged overnight. NZD/AUD continued...
US dollar gathers strength
5.6.24 The US dollar is broadly stronger overnight, seeing the NZ dollar slightly weaker after its run towards 0.62 yesterday, commented Jason Wing, senior markets strategist. The yen has outperformed as the market anticipates less BoJ bond buying ahead. US Treasury yields have fallen for a fourth successive day, seeing the 10-year rate down towards 4.3%, supported by safe-haven flows after some surprising EM election results, lower oil prices, and softer US labour market data. “There have...
See-saw for the Kiwi dollar
Market reaction to the NZ Budget was minimal, noted BNZ Markets this morning, US economic data releases were bond-friendly, consistent with slowing growth and weaker inflation. US Treasury yields reversed course after their rise this week, encouraged by weaker data releases overnight. The 10-year rate is down 6bps to 4.55% with a slightly flatter curve. The USD also reversed course and is broadly weaker, seeing the NZD recover overnight to 0.6125 after a brief dip below 0.61 just after the NZ...
All ears open for the 2024 Budget
30.5.24 The domestic focus will centre on the Budget today. BNZ Markets notes this morning that Finance Minister Willis has already flagged that the operating balance for 2024/25 will deteriorate relative to the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update in December. “The market will be closely monitoring the Treasury’s projections with the RBNZ noting the fiscal backdrop as a potential upside risk to the inflation backdrop at its Monetary Policy Statement last week,” comments Stuart Ritson, senior...
US consumer confidence increases
A surprise jump in US consumer confidence and weak demand for US Treasuries at the 2 and 5-year auctions have driven up US rates, the 10-year rate rising over 7bps, notes BNZ Markets today.. This reversed earlier weakness in the USD, resulting in small net currency movements for the day, said Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. After reaching a fresh 11-week high of 0.6170 overnight, the NZD has fallen back down to 0.6140. The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence unexpectedly...
Two month highs for Kiwi dollar
It has been a quiet start to the week with US and UK markets closed for holidays, notes BNZ this morning. “Of note, some dovish comments from key ECB members pushed down European yields but with limited impact on the euro.,’ says Jason Wong, senior market strategist. “US equity futures are slightly higher, and US 10-year Treasury futures are little changed. “The NZD pushed up to fresh two-month highs just over 0.6150. “With the US and UK on holiday, the news headlines are Europe-centric and...
US dollar driven higher
Much stronger than expected US PMI data drove US rates and the USD higher and US equities lower overnight, says BNZ Markets this morning This saw the NZD lose earlier gains, and it trades back just under 0.61. “The spillover from Wednesday’s hawkish RBNZ policy update continued, with domestic rates higher, led by the short-end, NZD/AUD rising to a fresh five-week high, and NZD/JPY up to a 17-year high,” says senior markets strategist Jason Wong. “In market-moving news overnight, the US...
NZ dollar flatter overnight
More hawkish commentary from Fed speakers hasn’t perturbed the rates market, with US Treasury yields down slightly on the day, says BNZ Markets this morning. US equities are flat and currency movements have been small, with the NZD trading just below the 0.61 mark, says senior markets strategist Jason Wong. “Domestic focus will be on the RBNZ’s MPS this afternoon, with expectations of little change in tone from previous messages. It has been another uneventful trading session overnight. “US...
US CPI data triggers market gains
Global asset markets made strong gains following the widely anticipated US CPI data, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Along with softer than expected retail sales, the CPI data contributed to markets bringing forward expectations of when the Federal Reserve will begin its easing cycle. The S&P rallied close to 1% which took the index to a fresh all-time high above 5300 and European stocks also closed at record levels. US treasury yields moved sharply lower, and the US dollar was...
Markets await American CPI news
Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s key US CPI release, notes BNZ Markets this morning. “There was some sticker shocker from a higher PPI print overnight, but on further reflection the data were mixed, and the spike in the USD and rates was very short-lived,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “US equities are up modestly, US Treasury yields are down slightly, and the USD is broadly weaker, seeing the NZD push up to 0.6040. “There has been plenty of news to digest...
