US dollar firms up as Trump scores Iowa win
17.1.24 The US dollar is broadly stronger, seeing NZD extend recent losses to below 0.6140. Equity markets are modestly weaker. The US dollar shows broadly based gains for the day, with strength during the NZ trading session extending overnight, driven by higher US rates against more modest moves seen across Europe, says BNZ Markets. “The DXY index is up a chunky 0.9% for the day,” said Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “The NZD is currently trading near its low for the day below...
Kiwi dollar takes a dip
16.1.24 In currency markets, the US dollar is broadly stronger and JPY, AUD and the NZD have all underperformed, seeing the NZD trade sub 0.62 overnight, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Against a backdrop of a broadly stronger USD, EUR has been flat around 1.0950. JPY, the NZD and AUD have been the worst performers, says senior markets strategist Jason Wong. “Higher global rates have helped push up USD/JPY by 0.6% to 145.70. Fading expectations that the BoJ will hike anytime soon pushed...
Stability on currency markets
15.1.24 Softer than expected US producer prices contributed to lower treasury yields on Friday night and currency markets were stable, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The US Dollar dipped briefly following the PPI data but was broadly unchanged into the end of last week continuing the range-bound price action since the recovery from 5-month lows at the start of January, says senior interest rate strategist Stuart Ritson. Lower front-end treasury yields didn’t have a lasting impact for...
Eyes on the yen ahead of BoJ meeting
The NZ dollar is flat around 0.62 while the yen has underperformed ahead of the Bank of Japan policy announcement later this afternoon, says BNZ Markets this morning. US Treasury yields have pushed a little higher against the backdrop of Fed officials attempting to hose down market expectations for early and significant rate cuts next year, adds senior market strategist Jason Wong.. “This hasn’t perturbed equity investors, with further gains in US equities,” he says. “Following NY Fed...
Light pressure on Euro
18.12.23 US equities were little changed on Friday amid comments from Fed officials that pushed back against the idea rates could be lowered soon, notes BNZ Markets this morning This contributed to higher front-end treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, mainly against European currencies, says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. Despite ending flat on Friday, the S&P was up 2.4% on the week and is only 2% below the record high from January 2022. “Comments from New York Fed...
Central bank decisions spark rally
After the large rally across global asset markets following the US Federal Reserve forecast it would implement 75 bps of cuts next year, focus overnight shifted to rates decisions by major European central banks, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) left rates on hold and sounded cautious on the outlook signalling that investor bets on imminent rate cuts may be premature, says Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. “The ECB...
NZ dollar picks up after fall
Ahead of the Fed’s latest policy update at 8am, some weaker data prints across the US, UK and euro area have helped pushed down global rate, says BNZ Markets this morning.. The move has been greatest for the UK, with weak GDP seeing a 14bps drop in yields and GBP underperforming, noytes Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. The NZD has recovered the loss seen during NZ trading hours as domestic rates tumbled, and it is little changed from this time yesterday at 0.6120. US equities are flat....
Tight channel for NZ dollar
13.12.23 Overnight, there has been a little market volatility around the US CPI release, says BNZ Markets this morning Net market movements have been modest following the in-line result, slightly disappointing a market that wants to see better figures to justify much easier monetary policy next year, notes Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. US equities, the USD and US rates are all pretty flat. The NZD is currently 0.6120, down a little overnight and up a little from this time yesterday....
AUD eases on weaker China data
12.12.23 It has been a typically quiet start to the week, more so given the lack of data and ahead of some key risk events this week, including the US CPI tonight, says BNZ Markets this morning A weaker yen has been the only market movement of note; other currencies show only small changes, US equities are flat and US Treasury yields are modestly higher,” notes Jason Wong, seniuor markets strategist. “In the lead-up to Christmas, the week ahead is full of key data releases and central bank...
US dollar eases and yen advances
8.12.23 The US dollar was broadly weaker, and the yen advanced to its strongest level since August following hawkish comments by Japanese policy makers, notes BNZ Markets this morning, US equity markets gained, and treasury yields retraced from an earlier move higher as investors look ahead to key data on the US labour market, says Stuart Ritson, senior interest rates strategist. Oil prices were little changed after touching a five-month low earlier in the week with the market unconvinced that...
Modest currency moves – oil drops
Another day, another extension of the global bond market rally, this time driven by weaker oil prices and a soft US ADP employment report being a supporting factor, says BNZ Markets this morning. European 10-year rates are down to their lowest levels since May, while the US 10-year rate has traded as low as 4.1%. “Currency moves have been small, with the NZD hovering around 0.6150,” notes Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. “Oil prices continue their poor run and are down more than 3% to a...
Global rates down, US dollar stronger
Global rates have fallen to fresh lows, following a series of bond market friendly developments, says BNZ Markets this morning The US 10-year rate is currently down 8bps to 4.17%, with even larger moves in European and Australian 10-year rates. US equities are flat while the USD is broadly stronger, with the NZ dollar nudging down to 0.6140, says BNZ Markets this morning. In currency markets, the USD is broadly stronger, with EUR the weakest of the majors overnight, sustaining a move below...
Local currencies drift lower
Newsflow has been light to start the week and it has begun with a “risk-off” tone, a reversal of the recent trend, notes BNZ Markets. US Treasury highs have jumped higher, US equities are lower, and the USD is broadly stronger. “It has been a typically quiet start to the week and the market is taking a breather from the hefty moves we’ve seen recently, after embracing a view that the Fed has finished tightening and increasing the scope for easier policy next year,” comments Jason Wong, senior...
NZ dollar goes back upstairs
4.12.23 The US dollar moved higher initially on Friday night and remained near the highs until a speech by US Federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The dollar index then reversed swiftly in line with lower treasury yields. The euro was a notable underperformer within G10 currencies as was the Canadian dollar. NZD/USD traded above 0.6200 to the highest level in 4-months and NZD/EUR is back at 0.5700. “Lower US yields have contributed to a fall in USD/JPY...
US dollar makes good gains
Global bonds are higher in yield while the US dollar advanced, says BNZ Markets this morning. In currency markets the US Dollar made broad based gains, particularly against European currencies, says Stuart Ritson. The 0.5% increase in the Dollar index trimmed its monthly losses to close to 3%. EUR/USD fell more than 0.5% in a move which gained momentum following the soft European inflation data. NZD/USD had choppy price action in offshore trade and is marginally weaker against the US...
KIwi dollar reverses after spike
Aided by a stronger USD overnight, the NZ dollar has reversed yesterday’s post-MPS rally, after the RBNZ’s surprising forecast update which showed an increased chance of tighter policy and a higher-for-longer rate track, notes BNZ Markets. NZD/USD is trading back around 0.6150. Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data, extending the recent rally and seeing the US 10-year rate fall to as low as 4.25% overnight, says Jason Wong. senior markets strategist. “There has been...
Policy -on-hold mood thickens
The NZD has pushed up to fresh highs, approaching 0.6150, says BNZ Markets this morning. Senior markets strategist Jason Wong says, “US Treasury yields are lower, led by the short end, the USD is weaker and US equities are higher, following comments by Fed Governor Waller which seemed to support the market narrative that the Fed’s tightening cycle was over. The focus overnight has been on Fed speakers and respected Governor Waller has helped extend the moves in markets we’ve seen so far in...
NZ dollar steadily rises
27.11.23 It was a subdued end to the trading week across global markets in the absence of first-tier economic releases and with a holiday-shortened session for US markets, notes BNZ Markets this morning. The S&P was near unchanged, and closed 1% higher on the week, which was the fourth straight weekly advance. “The US Dollar extended recent declines, global bond yields moved higher and oil prices fell after OPEC+ delayed a scheduled meeting amid a dispute about output quotas,” says Stuart...
NZ dollar and AUD firm
Markets are quiet, with the US on holiday but European bond yields have pushed higher, with slightly better than expected PMIs, a backdrop of hawkish ECB commentary and Germany suspending its debt limit all in the mix, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Currency movements have been modest overnight, and the NZD has held onto its small gain seen during local trading hours and currently sits around 0.6050. Early November readings for PMI data in Europe and UK showed a broad-based lift in activity...
NZ dollar eases back
23.11.23 US jobless claims and inflation expectations data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines, while providing broad support for the USD, says BNZ Markets this morning. “Thus, the NZD hasn’t managed to hold onto its recent gains and has fallen to just over the 0.60 mark,” says Jason Wong, senior market strategist at BNZ Markets. “In a reflection of how fickle markets are at the moment, and their sensitivity to anything that might have an...
Kiwi dollar break to the upside
]22.11.23 Overnight trading conditions have been uneventful, but the NZD has managed to hold on to most of the gains seen during local trading hours from the tailwind of stronger Asian currencies, notes BNZ Markets this morning The US 10-year rate has consolidated near its recent two-month lows, with the drift down in global rates providing further support to the yen, says senior markets strategist Jason Wong. “One of the most notable events in financial markets over the past 24 hours has been...
Asian currencies to the fore
The US dollar has extended its recent decline. “It has been under pressure amid softer than expected inflation and activity data which has reinforced investors' expectations that the Fed tightening cycle is complete.” Notes Stuart Riston at BNZ Market. The dollar index fell a further 0.4%. “Asian currencies have performed strongly. USD/JPY couldn’t regain the psychological 150 level in Asian trade yesterday before trading 0.8% lower. Large speculative short Yen positioning could exacerbate any...
USD weaker, equities gain
US equities made modest gains on Friday in the absence of first-tier economic data or other market drivers, NOTES bnz mARKETS THIS MORNING The S&P ended up 0.1%, and consolidated above 4,500, having advanced close to 2% during the week. US investment grade credit spreads were little changed, and are close to the tightest levels for 2023, after the recent strong performance in risk sensitive assets. The US dollar was weak across the board and 10-year US treasuries were stable. News that...
Commodity currencies under-performing
A risk-off vibe has been overhanging the market, with commodity currencies underperforming over the past 24 hours, albeit with no fresh damage done to the NZD and AUD overnight, notes BNZ Markets this morning. US Treasury yields are lower, with the market supported by a series of weaker US economic indicators. On the calendar overnight were a series of second-tier US economic indicators but they have proven to be market moving, as they all conveyed the same message of a weaker US economy, says...
Kiwi dollar settles around o.60
Currency movements have been mainly modest overnight and the NZ Dollar has consolidated over the 0.60 mark. Following yesterday’s substantial decline, US Treasury yields have reversed course, seeing the 10-year rate up 11bps from the NZ close, notes BNZ Markets this moirning This followed data showing slightly stronger than expected retail sales but much weaker PPI inflation. “Higher rates haven’t got in the way of further upside in US equities, “The expert commentary around yesterday’s...
Sizeable USD drop after US CPI
There were large moves across global markets as US CPI printed below consensus expectations, notes BNZ Markets. “The data increased the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve hiking cycle is complete and the next move in the policy rate will be a cut in 2024,” comments Stuart Ritson, senior interest rate strategist. “Equities made strong gains – the S&P is up 1.8% in early afternoon trade – while bond yields fell sharply and the US dollar lost ground. US CPI was unchanged in October...
Markets waiting for US CPI
14.11.22 Market movements have been modest ahead of tonight’s key CPI release, with little net change in US equities and Treasury yields and modest changes in currencies, notes BNZ Markets this morning. Jason Wong, senior markets strategist comments, “The AUD has outperformed, seeing NZD/AUD push lower as the NZD remains flat just under 0.59. It has been a typically quiet start to the week, particularly so with the key release this week being the US CPI report due tonight. The US 10-year rate...
Kiwi dollar outperforms
10.11.23 Another day of light news sees further market consolidation, notes BNZ Markets this morning. “The NZD has outperformed, pushing up towards 0.5950 and it is higher on the crosses,” says Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. The US 10-year rate has pushed higher after trading at a fresh six-week low yesterday afternoon. “This week is living up to its billing of being uneventful, as the lack of newsflow continues. Traders are anticipating what Powell might say when he appears on a panel...
Oil prices on backburner
Newsflow remains light with modest changes in pricing across equities, bonds and currencies, as the market shows signs of consolidation following last week’s significant moves, says BNZ Markets this morning. The key market mover has been lower oil prices, with Brent crude down 2½% for the day after yesterday’s 4.2% drop, seeing it trade below USD80 per barrel for the first time since July.,” notes Jason Wong., senior markets strategist. “When prices were above USD90 the narrative was very...
Greenback in broad-based gains
8.11.23 The US Dollar has made broad-based gains while global bonds are lower in yield, says BNZ Markets this morning In commodity markets, oil prices have fallen close to 3%, to the lowest level in more than 3 months, on concerns about global growth following weak Chinese trade data, notes Stuart Ritson, senior fixed interest strategist. “Comments by US Federal Reserve officials emphasised that bringing inflation lower to 2% is its primary goal. However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee...
