Commodities

Westpac revise forecast on dairy price

21.2.22 On the back of the continued strength in global dairy prices, last Westpac upgraded their 2022/23 farmgate milk price forecast by $1.00 to $8.50/kg. A weaker NZD/USD is also supporting a higher forecast. “Meanwhile for now, we are sticking with our record-high 2021/22 forecast of $9.50/kg,” add Westpac economists. This revision to next season’s forecast comes as global dairy prices continue to surge. Already, overall prices have lifted nearly 14% so far over 2022, while key whole milk...

read more

Oil price hit 7-year high

4.2.22 Global oil prices rose on Thursday to 7-year highs on on-going supply concerns. CommSec reports, “The Brent crude price rose by US$1.64 or 1.8% to US$91.11 a barrel. The US Nymex crude price rose by US$2.01 or 2.3% to US$90.27 a barrel. “Base metal prices were on lower by as much as 2.2% on Thursday with lead down the most. But aluminium rose 2.4%. “The gold futures price fell by US$6.20 or 0.3% to US$1,804.10 an ounce. Spot gold was trading near US$1,805 an ounce in late US trade. Iron...

read more

Dairy prices sustain strength

2.2.22 The GlobalDairyTrade auction was another strong one, with the price index rising by 4.1%, following the gain at the previous auction of 4.6%. Whole milk powder rose by 5.8% while skim milk powder rose by 2.1%. “Prices are up over 30% from a year ago, against a backdrop of a softer NZ dollar through much of the past year,” said Jason Wong at BNZ Markets. This is creating an environment of strong returns for dairy farmers, who are on track for a record milk payout this year. Mr Wong said...

read more

Rising world markets

1.2.22 There hasn’t been a great deal of news but the new week has begun with a classic lift in risk appetite, note BNZ Markets. This sees higher equity markets, higher global bond rates, higher commodity prices and higher commodity currencies alongside a weaker USD and soft safe haven currencies, said Jason Wong, senior markets strategist. The AUD has outperformed, lifting 1%. Following the sharp rally in US equities late Friday, the new week has seen some more positive price action, with the...

read more

Oops, oil takes quick dip

Global oil prices fell by near 2% on Monday on jitters ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting. “A stronger US dollar made commodities more expensive for buyers in Asia and Europe,” noted CommSec. “Adding to investor jitters was news that the United Arab Emirates intercepted and destroyed two Houthi ballistic missiles targeting the Gulf country on Monday. “The Brent crude price fell by US$1.62 or 1.8% to US$86.27 a barrel. “The US Nymex crude price fell by US$1.83 or 2.1% to US$83.31 a...

read more

Oil prices at 7 year high

20.1.22 Global oil prices climbed to 7-year highs on Wednesday. Reuters notes that "a fire on a pipeline from Iraq to Turkey briefly stopped flows, increasing concerns about an already tight short term supply outlook." Concerns about instability in the United Arab Emirates and Ukraine added to supply concerns, reported CommSec. The Brent crude price lifted by US93 cents or 1.1% to US$88.44 a barrel. The US Nymex crude price added US$1.53 or 1.8% to US$86.96 a barrel. “Base metal prices rose by...

read more

Oil trend firm and gold rises

6.1.22 Global oil prices rose by around 1.0% on Wednesday despite mixed news on US fuel inventories. CommSec adds, “The Brent crude price rose by US80 cents or 1.0% to US$80.80 a barrel. And the US Nymex crude price rose by US86 cents or 1.1% to US$77.85 a barrel. *\ “ Base metal prices were weaker on Wednesday by between 0.8- 2.4% with copper and lead down the least and nickel down the most. But tin rose 0.2% and aluminium rose 3%. “The gold futures price rose by US$10.50 or 0.6% on Wednesday...

read more

Oil prices move higher

5.1.22 Global oil prices rose by around 1.2% on Tuesday, noted CommSec. OPEC+ oil ministers agreed to stick to their plan of gradually unwinding production constraints, lifting output targets by 400,000 barrels per day in February. Production disruptions in Libya also supported crude prices. The Brent crude price rose by US$1.02 or 1.3% to US$80.00 a barrel. And the US Nymex crude price rose by US91 cents or 1.2% to US$76.99 a barrel. Base metal prices were firmer on Tuesday, lifting by...

read more

Positive outlook for lamb season

7.12.21 Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s (B+LNZ) Lamb Crop 2021 report estimates a slight increase in the lamb crop for spring 2021 as sheep and beef farmers achieved an impressive lambing percentage of 131.9 percent. Favourable conditions from mating through to lambing for most of the country led to an overall increase in lambs tailed. The report, produced by B+LNZ’s Economic Service, measures lambing performance and forecasts lamb and sheep exports for 2021-22. B+LNZ’s Chief Economist Andrew Burtt...

read more

Dairy drives commodity price index higher

6.12.21 The ANZ World Commodity Price Index lifted 2.8% in November, pushing it into new territory. Dairy prices led the charge, supported by strong gains in meat, which offset weaker prices for forestry and aluminium. In local currency terms, the index gained 3.1%, which was also a record high Global shipping costs have eased, although pricing remains elevated and expected to remain volatile, notes ANZ agri economist Susan Kilsby. “The Baltic Dry Index dropped sharply, falling 21% during...

read more

Oil slips, base metals too

Global oil prices slid over 2% on Wednesday. Iran and the EU agreed to restart negotiations on a revival of the 2015 nuclear accord, potentially increasing Iranian supply, reports CommSec. “US crude oil inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels last week, according to the US EIA, above expectations for a 1.9 million barrel gain. The Brent crude price fell by US$1.82 or 2.1% to US$84.58 a barrel. And the US Nymex crude price lost US$1.99 or 2.4% to US$82.66 a barrel.” * “Base metal prices fell on...

read more

Broad gains on dairy auction

  20.10.21 The overnight GDT dairy auction showed a lift in prices for all products offered, with the price index up 2.2%. Whole milk powder rose by 1.5% while skim milk powder rose by 2.5%. The price index has now increased for five consecutive auctions, recovering some prior losses, and adds to the prospects of a bumper payout for the FY22 season, with NZX futures for the milk price recently trading above $8.60 per kg/milk solids, commented BNZ Markets.

read more

Oil price tailwind for Genesis

20.10.21 Oil rally tailwind Rising crude oil prices will provide a windfall for NZX-listed Genesis Energy, due to its participant in the offshore Kupe joint venture. The Kupe joint venture recently completed the Kupe inlet compression project. The project enabled the Kupe production station to return to full capacity production of 77TJ/day. Despite minor delays due to COVID disruptions, the project was delivered on budget and safely. The additional gas will enable better utilisation of Huntly...

read more

Commodity prices fall off their peak

Shipping costs continue to rise 4.8.21 The ANZ World Commodity Price Index has come off its record level, having eased 1.4% in July. Dairy continued to lose ground and we also recorded lower prices for logs this month. In local currency terms the index barely changed, lifting just 0.1% m/m, as lower commodity prices were offset by a softening in the NZD Trade Weighted Index. Global shipping costs are still rising, says ANZ agri economist Susan Kilsby  In July the Baltic Dry Index eased in the...

read more

Extra milk deflates DairyTrade auction

4.8.21 Dairy prices fell for the eighth consecutive auction this week.  Westpac senior agriculture economist  Nathan Penny said  the recent falls as a reflection of very strong New Zealand production and a Delta variant-led deterioration in the global demand outlook. “Fundamental developments over recent months have been negative for our milk price forecast,” said Mr Penny. “Firstly, NZ production was very strong over the autumn months with production up roughly 10% on the same time last year....

read more

Wool prices hit bottom – logs still climbing

Wool prices have been going downhill - while log prices climb. 16.6.21 Coarse wool has been trading at extremely low prices for a year now, notes ANZ Bank’s June Agri Focus report. “Pricing was already trending down before the pandemic hit, but dropped even further at that time,” says agri economist Susan Kilsby. “We did see prices improve a little earlier this year but generally prices continue to bounce around at low levels. “The good news is that international buyers remain active and the...

read more

Commodity prices at dizzy heights

  The ANZ World Commodity Price Index lifted 1.3% for the month in May, its eighth consecutive lift. ANZ Agri Economist Susan Kilsby said “Prices for all major categories of commodities lifted, pushing the index to a record level.” “Global shipping costs for containers are starting to stabilise at elevated levels, but shipping delays are expected to linger for at least the remainder of the year. Exporting to Asia is easier than further afield, hence a larger portion of goods is now moving in...

read more

Dairy prices move higher on Chinese demand

20.1.21 Dairy prices increased by 4.8% at this week’s GlobalDairyTrade auction, better than had  been expected. The price gain has taken the index to its highest level since 2014. At BNZ Markets, Nick Smyth noted that whole milk powder prices rose by 2.2%, reaching their highest level since the start of 2017. “Firm demand, higher international grain prices, signs of slower growth in EU milk supply, and some concern about subdued NZ milk supply were all supportive factors going into the...

read more

Gold miner raises $3m

New Talisman Gold Mines has today allotted 100,041,038 ordinary shares related to the 2019 Share Purchase Plan, which successfully raised $3.6m. The allotment represented 94.8% of the potential loyalty shares that were available to shareholders who held their shares for the year following the initial SPP close.

read more