Market Reports

MARKETWEEK: Market refocuses on the back-yard.

  Some essential equipment for current circumstances 21.5.22 Warren Head Reason prevailed over over-reaction this past week as the New Zealand sharemarket refocussed onto home market events and let the turmoil on Wall Street take care of itself. In that sense the 2022 Budget, the 5th from Finance Minister Grant Robertson, did not ruffle investors. Although they might consider that his second ‘well-being’ budget is funded by increased tax-take from (1) consumers through 15% GST on rising...

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Market report 20.5.22

  A splash of fiscal stimulus in the 2022 Budget offset another soggy day on Wall Street, when the NZ sharemarket opened today. The Dow dropped 236.94 at 31,253.13 but the NZX50 closed off the week with a 60.46 points gain at 11,267.37. There were three companies reporting today for the March 31 year.  Ryman Healthcare laid to rest any doubts about its earnings track with an exceptional result (underlying profit of $255m, +13.6%) and in the analysts’ presentation management erased doubts...

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Market report 19.5.22

  It only takes a few hours to erase euphoria and instal fear these days on Wall Street. Major US ports are readying for a surge in consumer imports for the summer shopping season but the rising costs of freight and fuel are trimming retail margins. When the Target department store chain released a weaker 1Q2 result last night, investors pushed the sell button. Target shares sank 25%, the worst drop since October 1987. The Dow Jones fell 1164.52, a descent of 3.57%, to 31,490.07. The...

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Market report 18.5.22

There was a rosy start to the day’s trading as American markets rallied, the Dow finally closing 431 points higher at 32,654, +1.34% The NZ March results report season picked up a little speed, with two companies posting FY22 details today: Investore and Argosy while Serko posted interim results. Total income for Serko, the business travel company, increased 12% to $18.9m in the half year to 31.3.22.  Net losses after tax increased by 22% to $36.0m reflecting investment to develop the...

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Market Report 17.5.22

Trading was fairly level on NZ today, with a small drop of -19.78 points to 11,137.88.  Overnight, the NYSE’s industrial index, the Dow Jones, rose 26.76 at 32,223.42. The highlight of the session was the listing of Ampol, the Aussie transport fuels and convenience retailer group that recently acquired Z Energy. The shares came onto NZX as a foreign exempt listing with issued capital of 238 million ords. Despite the capital size, Ampol is a major business in Australia and its shares had a...

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Market report 16.5.22

  After a strong recovery made on Wall Street at the weekend, the expectation was that the NZX market would follow suit even if to a less degree. This was how the Monday session began but from mid-afternoon, as the massive $2.9 billion Emissions Reduction Plan climate change action policy was unpacked by media, the session shed gains and eventually shed 10.52 points at 11,157.66 on the NZX50. Manawa (formerly Trustpower) released its FY22 results which looked stunning at $119.8m NPAT vs...

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MARKETWEEK: When is a $10 trillion sell-off enough?

  Warren Head After a gut wrenching 18th week of crazy swings and roundabouts on Wall St, which has ripped out onto other international markets, is that enough? At what point do share prices bottom out on one of the high altitude ledges? When everything looks over-sold - even before we have validating evidence from listed company results? These start to be announced from next week with the first crop of March balance date results lined up. They will coincide with the Government’s Budget...

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NZ market report 13.5.22

13.5.22 This rollercoaster of a week may be over for the NZX market, as it closed this evening at 11,168.18, on a daily drop of just 9.18 points. But the tone of tonight’s US market will determine whether the spell of risk aversion is calming or entering another sell-off. The Dow Jones came back from another deep put during last night’s trading, rising to a close at 31,730 (-103 points down) after wallowing almost 500 points lower at one stage. The gainers were few enough on NZX, but notably...

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NZ Market Report 12.05.22

  Another savage session on Wall Street washed over to other markets today. American markets continue to be troubled by inflation data, the latest numbers coming in slightly above expectations. The Dow dropped 326.63 to 31,834.11. On the NZ market, investors are concerned about the extent to which official cash rates will rise next month. Inflation worries surfaced as a BNZ report warned of the increasing risk of a 2023 recession. Some reasonable gains were achieved, notably by EBOS which...

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Market report 11.5.22

The New Zealand sharemarket recovered some lost ground today, rising fractionally by just 3.72 points to 11,233.17, but there was some relief that the torrent of red ink of the past week is paused. The Dow dropped 84.96 to 32,160.74, failing to hold onto gains in mid-session. The sub-texts for today’s session were the US market recovering and then faltering to a small fall, while on the domestic front the BNZ postulated the increasing risk of NZ falling into a 2008-type recession. The bank’s...

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Market report 10.5.22

  The slowdown in China’s trade due to the current widespread lockdown there is being interpreted as a huge negative for the US economy and coming on top of the switch by the US Federal Reserve to monetary tightening, has rattled equity investors. In New Zealand the March season of NZX-listed stocks is nigh and already there are worries it will be the flattest for earnings in years.  Toss in commodity costs on the creep and the recipe was baking nicely on equity markets again today. The...

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Market report 9.5.22

    The mood was sombre on NZX today as the market weighed up rising inflation risk, the likelihood that the March seasonal reports will be rather flat, and the currency is showing the vulnerability to the direction of major currencies.  The NZD fell to U$0.64 today and that may also possibly mean some international investment is backtracking out of the NZ market.  The reality is, however, that the barrage of negative news that is undercutting the currency is also improving the...

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MARKETWEEK:      A wild week for financial markets

7.6.22   Warren Head The financial markets have just finished a week of intensified volatility which has shown how exposed they have become to short term emotionalism. Following the nose-drive of Thursday night, when the Dow Jones fell 1,032 points a day after rocketing over 900 points upwards, investors were left in a dizzy state. After a shockingly poor month for investors in April, there were justified apprehensions about the decision that the US Federal Reserve would make on the level...

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Market report 6.5.22

There was probably nowhere to hide from a 1063 slide of the Dow Jones on Wall Street last night – and the NZX market didn’t disagree. Disappointing though that is, considering that although we have higher inflation in common we already have central bank interest rates 50 basis points higher than those now prevailing in the US. The US market backtracked from yesterday’s rally, having reportedly reassessed whether Fed Governor Jerome Powell might spring a 75pts rate increase next time. Only a...

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Market report 5.5.22

The NZ equity market trailed the US market’s close today and looked somewhat staid by comparison in its 72 point rise to 11,747.57.   The US market rallied strongly after the US Federal Reserve bumped the cash rate up 50 basis points to 1.00% overnight – which seems a little odd considering higher rates usually mean a cooling for equities. Not so, with the after-statement media conference remarks more or less ruling out the hype around a possible 75pt hike at the next FOMC decision. So, the...

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Market Report 4.5.22

  The NZ sharemarket softened today with traders active in recycling leading stocks. Skellerup, which rose yesterday after a slip on Monday was back down again today, -20c at $5.50. Restaurant Brands fell 27c at $12.43, Marsden Maritime 15c to $6.  Energy stocks were mixed, Contact dropped 16c to $7.48, Mercury down 7.5c at $5.875. NZ Oil & Gas as part of the Mereenie Joint Venture, inn central Australia, has entered into trading and transportation agreements enabling sales of...

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Market report 3.5.22

  The NZ sharemarket had a weak trading session and closed down 108.44c at 11,675.92 on the NZX50 index. Overnight, the Dow Jones firmed 84.29 to 33,061.50 as the market moves towards this week’s US Fed decision of the US cash rate. EROAD improved 13c to $3.33, Skellerup reclaimed 19c of recent losses  to trade at $5.70. Trustpower gained a further 10c, and Vulcan Steel improved by 12c at $10.10.  Fletcher Building CEO Ross Taylor told the Macquarie conference today that conditions remain...

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Market report 2.5.22

The shadow of Friday’s night of the knives on Wall Street hung about today as the NZ market opened for the week. The NASDAQ was down a huge 4.2% on Friday, ending a miserable month for tech stocks. “On the month, the NASDAQ was 13.2% lower, its worst month since October 2008, while the S&P500 didn’t fare much better, down 8.8% on the month (-3.6% on Friday),” noted BNZ Markets. “Notionally, ~80% of companies have beaten earnings estimates this quarter, but investors have focused on more...

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MARKETWEEK: More turmoil on Wall Street

30.4.22 Warren Head The global markets have shown a  penchant for extreme volatility over the past month and last week was notable for Wall Street soaring one day and then falling off its perch the next. The Dow has dropped 939.18 overnight, a fall of 2.77%, to 32,977.21. Which rather makes the NZX50 close at 11,884.3 look rosy. While almost everything that is wobbly is now blamed on the war in Ukraine, the root causes of the US market drop lie in the difficulty that super stocks are having in...

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Market report 29.4.22

  Thin trading on a Friday afternoon told the story- investors were on the move – going home at the end of the school holidays and leaving the Thursday rally hanging in the autumn breeze. The NZX50 managed a modest 8.34 points gain to 11,844.30.  The NZD was a possible factor, falling to US$0.65 and blunting the buying power of foreign investors. Meanwhile the US markets put on a sizzling 614.46 points, a gain of +1.85%, on the Dow Jones at 33,916.39. The US market is abuzz about re...

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Market report 28.4.22

28.4.22 The NZ sharemarket came racing back like the tide turning – pushing the NZX50 up 149 points to 11,875.96. Earlier, the Dow Jones closed up 61.75 at 33,301.93. Decliners today were small in number, the largest being a 41c fall for F&P Healthcare at $21.24, with PGG Wrightson down 12c at $4.02, EBOS down 20c to $42.50 and 9c falls for DGL Group and Vulcan Steel Mainfreight drove 235c higher to $81.10, Freightways followed with a 40c gain at $12.30, Skellerup jumped 24c to $5.872...

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Market report 27.4.22

    After a rough night’s trading on Wall Street that saw the Dow Jones plummet 2.38% it could have been much worse for the NZ equities market today but selling was kept to similar levels seen in recent days. The NZX50 ended the day down 86.79 at 11,726.39.  In contrast, the Dow dropped 809.28 to 33,240.18 as commodities markets began to react to adverse news out of Europe Russia has halted natural gas movements to Poland and Bulgaria whilst demanding payment in rubles. Oil prices...

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Market report 26.4.22

  An unease spread through the NZX market today, in contrast to Wall Street where the day opened with the US market rising 238 on the Dow to 34,049. The NZX was in fickle mood, buffeted by the volatility in markets.  The NZX50 faltered and ended up down 95.22 at 11,813.18.  There were a few good gains, led by Vulcan Steel’s 36c rise to $10.33 on a bullish new earnings guidance for FY22. Pushpay shot up 24.27% or 24c to $1.28. Accordant gained 8.5% or 16c at $2.05. Fletcher gained 6c at...

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MARKETWEEK: Market plays second fiddle to autumn break

Queenstown, Central Otago, in autumn Warren Head  // The Kiwi sharemarket has had another of those anaemic weeks, sheltering as it were from a very volatile world.  The autumn troika of short trading weeks has also compressed trading. And we are still only 2/3rds of the way back to any real return of business activity. So, the market is suffering from the same problem as the economy – a drift. The NZX50 ended the week at 11,908.4 which saw the weekly change of +16.82 points. The support levels...

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Market report 22.4.22

  Another rush of bondmania flamed out as the US mulled over just what strength the Fed’s interest rate medicine might be in response to inflation surging. In NZ, the markets were still absorbing the 6.9% CPI number (the highest in 30 years) and where or what was to blame. The US equities market slipped lower today, by 1.05% or 368 points to settle at 34,792.76.  The NZ NZX50 trailed along, losing 45.60 at 11,908.40. In Japan another inflection point was looming, with the yen faltering,...

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Market report 21.4.22

  The NZ market appeared bemused today after a global rally burnt off and US equities galloped higher for another day. The Dow Jones rose 249.59 to 35,160.79. But in NZ, the market volatility played second fiddle to the highest level of inflation in 30 years. That appears to have baked in the belief that the Reserve Bank will keep adding upwards increments in the official cash rate over the remainder of 20922. The NZX50 fell 12.19 at 11,954.00. Declines today included 40c fall by F&P...

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Market report 20.4.22

The bears were routed on Wall Street by a bold call by JP Morgan that the market sentiment had become, well, too bearish. The huge investment firm said in a research note that it remained ‘constructive on equities’ and a key executive said he thought that a near-term rally was likely especially in small cap and high beta market segments. The US trading day also saw a clutch of quarterly reports range from the mixed to the encouraging. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones index was up 1.45%...

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Market report 19.4.22

The NZ sharemarket got off to a soft start for the short week, with several leading stocks incurring double digit drop. F&P Healthcare fell 54c to $22.26, while EBOS came back by 35c to $41.65, Freightways shed 27c at $12.05 and Restaurant Brands lost 31c at $13.29. Ryman Healthcare was knocked down 41c to $9.02, while a2 Milk shed 14c to $5.01, and both Serko and Trustpower fell 12c. The gains were led by DGL Group, rising 45c or 12% today to $4.18 after an upbeat guidance to the market....

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MARKETWEEK :   Some gems surface in slow-moving current

Michael Hill International produced an 11th quarter of growth 16.4.22      / Warren Head   / The market week brought home the reality that inflation is back in spades and that central banks are beginning to respond with higher cash rates – which paradoxically increase costs to both consumers and businesses. This has added just another layer of uncertainty to equity markets where the growth prospects of listed companies in FY22 are under scrutiny. The New Zealand market put in a quiet four-day...

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Market report 14.4.22

  The NZ sharemarket snapped a losing streak to post a 16.58 points gain on the day at 11,811.58 on the NZX50.  One felt that it wasn’t as much domestically motivated – given the lack of newsflow and a glass half -full tone about our major cities for all the positive chatter about the flick to orange on the Covid traffic light system – as recognition that a kick higher on Wall Street cannot be ignored. And 344.23 points was a strong bounce for the Big Apple bourses (to 34,564.59 on the...

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